Ruble strengthened its support stable oil and

The ruble strengthened its support stable oil and the tax period

Russian
the national currency strengthened a little today
on weak trading due to
to slow down the drop in oil prices
and the beginning of the tax
period in the
Russia. The ruble today and more
will support these two factors.

According to
Moscow Stock Exchange to 13:40 MSK pair
USD / RUB traded
at 64.49 level, the pair EUR / RUB –
at the level of 74.78. "we
We believe that the dollar / ruble exchange rate will remain
Today in the range 64,50-65,50"- give
its forecast in Sberbank CIB.

If oil
not close to an important level
resistance at $ 50
barrel, the ruble against
US dollar could
strive to 70.00, analysts say
Sberbank CIB.

crude oil
Brent traded at
$ 49.80 in the morning
the price was higher
$ 50 per barrel.

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In Europe multidirectional dynamics miners in

In Europe, multidirectional dynamics, miners in a minor key

Stock
Europe on Monday departs from the recent
Rally: very weak Chinese figures
knocked down mining stocks
companies. However, information on transactions
mergers and acquisitions helped save
the main European indices afloat.
At the time of 17.25 MSK composite index of the largest
European industrial companies Euro
Stoxx 50 added 0.46%; CAC 40
increased by 0.37%. But the DAX and
FTSE lost 0.04% and 0.22%
respectively.

Corporation
Nokia added 2% on the news
the possible sale of its units,
dealing cards. 5.9% added
Sydbank shares after
group presented the return program
redemption of shares.

predictable
We feel bad today
mining firms: BHP
Billiton and Anglo American lost
to 2% each. In addition to all the troubles
mining sector, Citigroup
also downgraded Metal
and mining industries to
“Neutral”. Today analytical
Bank department lowered its forecast
the cost of iron ore to 36 dollars
per tonne in the third quarter, more
strongly weakened the position of the miners on
market.

On
Volkswagen declined 1.7% quotes:
here erupted management
a crisis. Chief executive officer
Corporation, Martin Winterkorn, going
to fight for his position, although on Saturday
it became known that he had lost the confidence
shareholders.

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Daily technical analysis of “blue chips”

Daily technical analysis of “blue chips”

Severstal

Bouncing Severstal raises the question of the return of the price to the level of the breached support and now resistance 674. The purpose of the bulls 679-680r. Potential shopping area is April 1 – 645

Recall that on 23 March the price broke through the Severstal major support 674, supporting the idea of ​​a strong downtrend. The first objective Fibonacci breakthrough (674) – 627. The mark of rebound principle 630r deploys upward position in the short term. Short-foot buyers are April 1 – 636.7. Medium-foot sellers are located on 1 April 668.3.

VTB

VTB March 31 was tested at least 2015. (0.0591) and lower it to 0.05837, but penetration has not taken place, the price is returned by 6 kopecks.

In the case of a penetration level of 0.0591 price can go to 0.5113. Softer bear embodiment represents a goal from 0.05611 0.06389 resistance level. The opposite option bullish movement from the minimum benchmark 0.0647 gives 0.05837. Short-sellers April 1 foot located at 0.06157, above are medium-foot sellers 0.06262.

Norilsk Nickel

Rebound on Monday March 30, MMC (before the annual report on March 31) raises the question of penetration up the February-March the downward movement corridors to 11219, but levels above 10,500 at the end of March, proved attractive to sellers. Earlier the sale of shares of MMC on the level of 10870 (to 9524) showed a downward force of the corridor, in which the correction of the December-February growth.

Short-foot buyers are April 1 – 9776 (medium-term stops are practically in the same place – on 9893).

Rosneft

Rosneft’s share of the district implemented a rebound mid December and March range (239.07). For bulls originated tangible goal up at 261.11-262.75. Medium-foot buyers placed April 1 at 236.09, short-foot buyers are located almost in the same place – in the area of ​​238.83.

Potential zone near shopping is April 1 – at 249.15

Sberbank of.

According to the action developed in the framework of a bullish rebound downward corridor. His current goal 64.81

Potential shopping area is April 1 – at 62.19.

Bears still a further embodiment of the maximum goal 58.38 26 March 65.8

Short-sellers are foot 1 April – 63.06. Medium-foot vendors placed April 1 at 64.15.

Lukoil

bullish rebound developed by Lukoil. His goal was formulated at the level of 2720. A possible option to continue giving benchmark already in 2828.

Potential shopping area is April 1 – to 2674.

Earlier, the stock almost reached its goal in 2565 (the second goal of the Fibonacci level of penetration of local minimum 26/02/15 – 2895). Even more aggressive variant was played by the strong resistance level of 2753 (up 26 March) – The objective of 2454.

At the level of 2565 is supported – it came after a gap up on 15 January.

Short-foot buyers are April 1 – 2584 (short-sellers were broken foot yesterday at 2684), medium-foot sellers are April 1 at 2744.3.

Gazprom

Dynamics of Gazprom shares at the end of the beginning of this week and revealed intentions rebound. As a result, the actual position at the beginning of the week turned up. Local formulated goal rebound from now to 139.24-141.91. Medium-foot buyers April 1 located at 132.12, short-foot buyers are virtually in the same place at 133.58.

Potential zone near shopping is April 1 – 138.2 below.

After breaking March 10 local minimum level (02/26/15) 149.1 – bears for actualized target total wave motion – 141.99, which was reached on March 13. The second objective Fibonacci after breaking 149.1 (when closing below 141.99) – 130.49 mark.

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Gold near 5 year lows on Fed rate increase expe

Gold near 5-year lows on Fed rate increase expectations

gold continues
lower quotes. Now, to 9.31 MSK,
troy ounce with delivery August 15
143.40 worth 1 dollar. Such a low price
the yellow metal for the last time
It was recorded March 1, 2010. During
Time gold slipped by 1.23%.

Platinum and palladium
also decreased: platinum 0.29% to 1 008.65
dollars, palladium – by 0.59% to 628.20
dollars.

Analysts say gold will
decline in the future. Since the beginning of the year
precious metal lost more than 3%. Him
not helped neither the Greek crisis or collapse
Chinese stock market – all factors
Months of interrupted growth
the expectation of interest rate rise
Fed. This week in Congress Janet
Yellen reiterated the central bank‘s intention
US rate increase this year if
economy will grow at the expected
pace. This strengthened the dollar (on Thursday
it rose against a basket of currencies to
seven-week high). rising dollar,
usually accompanied by a decrease
gold.

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US crude inventories rose more than expected

US crude inventories rose more than expected. Quotes went down

according to
released Wednesday evening Management Reports
US Energy Information Administration, stocks
of crude oil in the US rose by 2.847 million
barrels. Projections suggest that
increase of 2.787 Mill.

On this information
oil quotes quickly began
fall: Brent again
It fell below $ 50
barrel and traded to 18.36 MSK on the mark
$ 49.94. WTI futures
fell 1.09% to $ 47.39.

support oil
another one has a closing
from the Libyan port of shipment and the strike
oil workers in Brazil. Therefore, for
the last day of “black gold” has added
more than 3%, and passed Brent
through the important psychological mark
$ 50 per barrel. growth stocks
more than predicted pressed on
“Black gold” and once again raises concerns
overabundance of raw materials on the market.

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Ruble rejoice withdrawal from Syria

Ruble rejoice withdrawal from Syria

U.S. dollar
in demand in the first day of the new trading week. However, news
Feed was pretty poor, so sharp fluctuations were observed. Chinese
news disappoint, the regional elections in Germany have been not in favor of the Angels
Merkel, and Iran undermines the position of the oil. As a result, we have suffered more than others
commodity currencies. AUD / USD down below 0.75. USD / RUB returned
above 70.00 after attempts to gain a foothold in the region of 69.30.

stock
indices have experienced a surge in demand, for the most part on correction than
ttto any specific drivers. Brent initially fell to 38.80 on
negative comments on Iran, but the evening show some
recovery. Gold also receded into the background – it has slipped to 1234 USD / oz..
Continued on site GK FOREX CLUB

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Oil forecast

Oil. forecast

In the oil market continued speculation about potential talks to freeze production of OPEC countries. New hope enveloped Brent positive, sending quotes to the highs of July 25 on the approach to the psychological mark of $ 46. / Bbl.

hydrocarbons Market
I have once again bought into verbal intervention. Apparently, manufacturers
concerned by the recent depreciation of the energy carrier, which until recently
actively updated 3.5-month low. Yesterday, the president of OPEC confirmed
the likelihood of informal talks on the sidelines of Energy Forum
Algeria, which is scheduled for 26-28 September.

In these conversations, participants
the market decided to use the strategy of “buy on rumor,” actively started to
build long positions and the elimination of positions in the sale of oil.
However, the current rally should be careful, because of the nature
such applications that at any moment can be offset
the big players, who has remained silent.

Today, on this factor Brent
Fresh distract the American Petroleum Institute report on stocks
hydrocarbons. Previous figure reflected the drop in the volume of 1.3 million
barrel. If we again see a fall in stocks of “black gold” and gasoline,
Quotes will receive an additional impetus to growth and will be able to gain a foothold for
outside barrier 46 dollars. / bbl. Otherwise barrel waiting
Time Correction.

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Ukrainian financial market has come under pressure

Ukrainian financial market has come under pressure again

For the majority of financial markets in developing countries in Europe in August was a quiet month. The only exception was Ukraine, where the new rising tensions with Russia weakened the national currency and led to an increase in the yield of dollar bonds.

“August was a relatively good month for equity markets in all major European countries with developing economies, except for Ukraine”, – writes Liza Ermolenko, Capital Economics economist for emerging markets. In the Turkish stock market in early August, it was restored after the sale, following the military coup in July, but since then he has had time to fall back because of concerns about the growing Turkish involvement in the conflict in Syria.

Most regional currencies also strengthened or remained stable in avguste.Rossiysky ruble became the best currency Emerging Europe in August, supported by the rebound in world prices for neft.Tem time, Turkish lira continues to recover, and has played almost all of the losses (in relation to the US dollar) incurred after a coup attempt in July. It is noteworthy that the Turkish currency was more stable than the stock market, the events in Syria.

Meanwhile, hopes that the political crisis in Ukraine is close to the resolution was again broken by reports of clashes between Russian and Ukrainian parts of the Crimea the border in mid-August. This, combined with the outstanding issue of the allocation of Ukraine the next tranche of the IMF (the last tranche was allocated over a year ago), put pressure on the Ukrainian market.

The hryvnia weakened in August by 3% against the US dollar, while the yield on dollar bonds of Ukraine, which since the beginning of the year has gradually decreased, increased again.

Today Prime Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Groisman said that he sees no reason for the deterioration of the situation in the autumn, and by the end of the year the economy could return to growth.

“It’s too early to say how events will unfold. But the latest movements in the market are a reminder that the nascent recovery of the Ukrainian economy and its financial markets remains fragile, “- writes Liza Ermolenko, Capital Economics economist for emerging markets.

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