In Ukraine lull Europe moved to increase

In Ukraine, a lull. Europe moved to increase

European
stock markets rose after
stocks have shown maximum growth
month. This happened against the backdrop of the fact that
Ukrainian and Russian officials
We met for talks: Pavlo
Klimkin and Sergei Lavrov spoke
in Berlin. The aim of the talks was
indicated by the easing of tensions
between the two countries. Although
Brezhnev kissing between politicians
It has not been fixed, the Minister of Foreign
Minister of Germany Frank-Walter Shtaynmeyer
assured that there had been some
success. Lavrov, however, grimly noted,
that no resolution has not been signed
It was.

“Everytime,
when you see a de-escalation
geopolitical risk – it is always
works in favor of the markets “, – stated in the
interview
Bloomberg
Steen
Jacobsen, Director of Investment Bank
Saxo
A / S (Copenhagen).
– “Short-term movements of the stock
the market is now almost entirely controlled
news on the situation in Ukraine / Russia.
Now we are seeing a temporary relief. ”

American
index futures rose, Asian
stock markets showed no significant
changes.

among individual
Companies increased United
Internet AG (+ 4% on the information
to buy 10.7% stake in Rocket
Internet AG). On
3% “fatter”
Renault SA, does not concern
to a lesser extent due to the fact that
among the 19 industry groups index
Stoxx Europe 600
Automotive lead. Bank
sector shows optimism so
Commerzbank AG added
1.4%. Technological area, too, in order:
It added 1.1% Deutsche Telekom AG,
and even stated that
that she was going to buy a large
cable providers.

Small
stock commotion happened even
tranquil Scandinavia: Tobacco Company
Assens A / S stated
that he was thinking about the IPO, on
background that Swedish Match AB
(Owner of 49% per cent
Assens) earned
1.5% increase to the share price.

In general Stoxx
0.9% 600 up to the middle of the day. Today
growth showed all industries represented
in the index. Futures on the index of S P
500 added 0.4%, but the
Asia-Pacific MSCI
headway, gaining
less than 0.1%.

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Statistical Week calendar of important events

Statistical Week: the calendar of important events

happen
there is a lot of interesting things: the publication
macroeconomic statistics,
and corporate reports, and speeches
officials. But it is clear that the center
attention in any case would
Ukrainian crisis and a variety of
events related to the embargo. West
preparing a “symmetrical response”, Russia,
and mustache is not blowing, is already considering a
list of industrial and medical
goods, which way across the border
It will be “ordered”.

In
Tuesday August 19
We are waiting for data
Balance of payments euro-zone inflation
UK retail sales
in the Russian Federation. US will present statistics package
of sales in retail chains, inflation,
construction of new homes and permits
for construction. With regard to individual
companies, investors await reports BHP
Billiton and John
Wood Group.

AT
Wednesday
at an economic conference in
Lindau speak German Chancellor Angela
Merkel. Also we are waiting for trade data
Balance in Japan, inflation in Germany
and Russia, building production
in the euro area, the index of the mortgage market.
The Fed and the Bank of England will present reports
their last meeting (expected of them
very much). On Wednesday, it is planned
also a large block of statistics from
individual companies: Cralsberg,
Heineken, Hewlett-Packard, Staples.

21
August Thursday
, investors and traders
We are looking forward to the start of the annual
Fed symposium in Jackson Hole. A speech
Janet Yellen will speak, and we again
scrutinize the minutes of the
performances, in search of hints
Fed raising interest rates. China
and the US provide business activity
in the industrial sector. France, Germany
and the euro zone as a whole manifest data
for industry and services.
Britain will give retail indices
sales. Also we expect figures on consumer
confidence in the euro zone. among the companies
focus – Report Raiffeisen
Bank and
Rostelecom.

Friday
It will be more relaxed: it gives the data
on inflation and retail sales
Canada. According to its success plans
report Mail.ru.

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BRIKC country associated risks when investing

BRIKC country associated risks when investing

In 2001, Jim O’Neill (. English, Jim O’Neil), economist, one of the largest commercial banks Goldman Sachs in the world, used the abbreviation BRIKC (English, BRIC.) With respect to the four countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China . Then the analyst did not know that by doing so made the most courageous macroeconomic application of all time. O’Neill suggested that in the future the state will be listed the main drivers of the global economy, given their correct demographic characteristics, the vast resources of wealth, the growth of the middle class, as well as a relatively stable fiscal and monetary policy. While the predictions come true economist. The growth index MSCI BRIC over the past 10 years, more than 8 times higher than the income from S P 500, and the total volume of GDP BRIKC countries last year jumped to 13.3 trillion dollars.

Equally good results have led many investors to include these
emerging countries in their portfolios, so that you can
would benefit from the rapid growth of the group. However, despite the
rosier long-term BRIKC countries, here lies a lot
risks in addition to the global macroeconomic pressures. Finally,
not without reason these economies called “developing”.

Investors are extremely important to deal with all the “pitfalls”
given the large contribution BRIKC countries into the world economy and their
share in emerging market assets. Since each of the four
countries is radically different from each other, understand the characteristics of risk
Each of them – a truly difficult task. When investing in the country
BRIKC should not lose sight of the inherent risks, which will be mentioned
below.

Dragon full of lies

When it comes to emerging markets investments,
the most popular option in the minds of many investors is China.
In the end, the country has all the classic signs
emerging market. Nevertheless, to invest in the economy
Asian Dragon is not as easy as to buy a share in Germany.

The biggest problem most likely is the lack of
generally accepted accounting principles (Eng., GAAP) or
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). this aspect
many by surprise even the best investors. For example, the control
hedge fund billionaire Dzhon Polson (Eng., John Paulson) lost a lot of
money on Chinese forest plantations, Sino-Forest Corp. Thus, the company
He accused of falsifying books and falsification of land
possessions. Often the charges are recorded in the forgery of bank deposits and
accounts. Due to the disclosure of information and lack of transparency much
difficult to see the real picture, especially when compared with the shares
Companies in developed countries.

Things get even worse when investors have to deal with
dubious official Chinese statistics and overly regulated and
because bureaucratic communist government. Most
large companies in the country one way or another controlled by Beijing.

The endless corruption in Russia

Despite the recent accession to the World Trade Organization
(WTO), the investor may face considerable investment
risks. The largest of them is corruption and political
pressure. It has become a commonplace that bribery and organized
crime permeates legal business. according to
A study by Information Science for
Democracy Foundation, the average size of small bribes in the last 10 years
The Russian Federation has been steadily increasing. In 2001, it was
priblizitelno1817 rubles, while by 2010 had risen to
5285, which accounted for 93% of the average worker’s salary.

Investors also have to confront the local government. If
adhere to views that do not coincide with the President’s wishes
Vladimir Putin, the development of business, as well as the investment process,
It may stall. In an extreme case, the investor can threaten and imprisonment
Finally. An example is the story Mihaila Hodorkovskogo,
former chairman of the oil giant Yukos. In 2005
he was accused of bribery, but it is believed that the real reason
are political in nature.

Latin American raw king

Although corruption is not open in Brazil as serious
the problem, as in Russia, investors still face certain
risks. They create a “protectionist approach of the government.” Now
country occupies 2nd place in Latin America in the number of protectionist
measures, behind only Argentina. Here we should mention the support of the local
products, high tariffs on imported goods, tax exemptions
to support domestic producers and limit access
investors in the strategically important natural resources. For example, if
investor wants to participate in the development of oil fields, he
partnerstvovat necessary to state energy giant
Petrobras. In general, such a policy can lead to the fact that
Brazil lose part of the profit from the investment, if the government would go
further and nationalize various assets.

Asian bureaucratic nightmare

Given the high degree of power of the people in India, the investor is quite ready
encounter with some fraction bureaucracy. However, Indian
bureaucratic machine is called “the most stifling in the world.” open your
business in India is very difficult, because the local and national
government usually puts his hand to the commercial market. Similarly
Investors impossible to enforce the contract, especially
When business partners tend to make deals with undeclared
third party. According to estimates of the Hong Kong Science Center
Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, India’s bureaucratic
the system simply does not allow the country to equalize the rate of economic growth
with their opposing countries.

conclusion

BRIKC country can boast of its economic growth and
provides investors with new opportunities to replenish the portfolio
valuable papers. However, investors still await a lot of risks.
Understanding all the “pitfalls” is the key to success in
conditions as rapidly developing economies of giants.

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US session ended in red zone

The US session ended in the red zone

Trading on Wall Street closed the fall of the US stock indices. This happened against the backdrop of escalating conflict in Ukraine, the problems in the Middle East and, of course, after the fall of the Malaysian airliner over Donetsk. Killed nearly 300 people, quite definitely, that the plane was shot down, but that’s what – is unclear. Both sides accuse each other, commenced an investigation.

the
time S P 500 fell
to a minimum of three months values.
Analysts say that investors have begun to
massively sell shares because
economic situation depends
by geopolitical conditions, and now
Geopolitics is very complicated.

A fall
stock market lasted the whole day in the United States,
but the total acceleration of the already acquired
at the end of the trading session, when it was
it is known that Israel launched a ground
operation in the Gaza Strip.

So,
figures.

S P lost
1.18%. DJIA fell by 0.94%.
Nasdaq Composite slid down
1.41%.

what
As for individual corporations, then
14% cheaper shares of the manufacturer
“Flash drives» – SanDisk (quarterly
Company statements are not pleased
investors). The insurance company UnitedHealth
Group Inc., on the other hand, raised her
quotes by 1.6%, and also due to the publication
statements.

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Oil on Monday unstable and falls in price

Oil on Monday unstable and falls in price

On Monday, Brent crude oil futures prices fell below $ 108 per barrel, as weak geopolitical problems in the Gaza Strip. Perhaps the most responsive to policy news today is oil.

In the morning on the ICE exchange in London, Brent crude for September delivery reached a session low of – $ 107,79 per barrel.

Investors assess the geopolitical
the situation in the Middle East after the
reported that Hamas and Israel
We agreed on a 24-hour humanitarian
Armistice. Traders are also watching
developments in Ukraine. At the same
time on the New York Mercantile Exchange
WTI crude for delivery in September fell
to $ 101.66 per barrel.

This week, on Wednesday,
Market participants are waiting for the application of
the Fed’s monetary policy, especially
regarding the timing of the increase
interest rates.

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When stocks and bonds do not give anything or

When stocks and bonds do not give anything – or how to make money work

Historically, that sometimes there were periods when the dividend yield of the stock market was very low. There have also been instances where a long time bondholders received a very modest income from its securities. And then, and another goal at the moment investors in a difficult position.

Charles Farrell, CEO of Northstar Investment Advisors, considered that if his portfolio contains equal shares list S P 500 and the medium-term government bonds, they would give a yield of 1.67% last year and is projected – 1.85% this year. But in 1925, the owner would have received from the same 4.3% income portfolio.

The thing is that
stocks and bonds, which give us
Now less income, we need to make
work that they bring us money.
He estimated that if, within the next
decades portfolio will also share
equally between stocks and bonds,
total revenue from it will be about
2-2.5 percentage points per year more than
inflation. With inflation at 2.1%
the last 12 months (compared to
average 3%) current low income
from stocks and bonds are not as worried,
as it seems, "even if both the market
will grow by 30% and give more inflated
with cash flows in terms of income".

Medium-term government bonds
(Five-year) currently provide
income by 1.8%. You get meager returns
yields below the inflation rate, and you
could suffer if interest
rates have sharply increased. What is the profit of 1,9%
for S P 500? Investors seem to be less
outraged by this, that, in part because
companies themselves aggressively buying back its
shares, which gives a chance to return the money
shareholders.

Over the past ten
years the company bought enough
the number of shares to compensate
new release. This change is historic
template when shareholders collectively
see its stake diluted to several
again – by about two percentage points
in year. And it becomes not clear whether
continue the pace of foreclosures. Companies have already started
free use corporate
cash to buy back shares,
partly because they are reluctant
at great expense. However, low
costs can not be sustained. Besides
addition, the timing of these ransoms sometimes frightening.
For example, companies selling more
volumes of stocks at the market peak in 2007, and
then sharply “cut” back to their
during the collapse in 2008 and 2009, and now again
sell these shares.

When stocks and bonds do not give anything or

stock market investors
also not so much concerned about the tiny
dividend yield, because
they have become accustomed, that dividends provide
through the sale of shares. In fact, in
Falling equity markets, as a rule,
better not to go, while
high-yield stocks is often better to keep
profitability. There is a more fundamental
question: how to make money from the company,
which will never return money
shareholders, and you depend on someone
another who pay more for their shares,
what you have done so.

Farrell advises
repay their debts. Suppose
you have a mortgage loan worth
5%. It seems “cheap” money.
But the pace and scale of the impact is likely to
higher than the return of your bond,
so it makes sense to sell bonds
to repay the mortgage loan.

And what to do with your
portfolio? Given the investment
costs and minimize
Investment tax bill, you
We should keep more than the markets provide.
It turns out obvious: save more.

"if you have
$ 500,000 in a portfolio with a yield of 4%, you
add $ 20,000 annually
as income portfolio"notes
Farrell. "But if it will only
2%, you add only $ 10,000 per year. that
compensate for the loss, you should pay more
and save, you might want to share,
that will give you more income".

Finally,
Farrell proposes to reduce the risk of
bonds through the purchase of securities with less
term, higher-quality bonds,
and more funds to invest in shares,
including stocks of companies that regularly
pay dividends.

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Passive investments may become basic method of

Passive investments may become the basic method of earnings

According to John
Rekentalera, vice-president of the Center
Morningstar research, passive
investment when using index
tracking mutual funds and ETF,
It is now an almost basic
approach in the market.

He points out that
Passive products captured 68% pure
sales for the 12 months (from June 2013 to
June 2014). Active mutual funds
mostly inefficient and costly
funds, where professionals work,
trying to beat the market-driven,
to get only 32% of the cost
of net sales.

"active managers
go to the periphery", – said Rekentaler
the publication on Wednesday in Morningstar edition.

ETF funds (less than 1% of them
are active funds) in terms of
the market share occupied by 35%, whereas passive
mutual funds obtained 33% pure
sales, and as a result the overall share of
68% of the market for passive products for
annual period.

If you start to learn
sales data more deeply, it is
It seems even bleaker for those who hold
active stocks. "If not for the international
and target-date funds flows,
active action is not taken in the past year
I have a penny of new money"- he wrote
he.

However, the active
International equity funds continue
to attract investors. But they
generally not as successful as they were
in the 1990s. This sounds very similar to the
Dallas Cowboys (national football team
It was the most successful in the 90’s) but …
let’s go back to the version Rekentalera.

"active managers
international fund were pretty
degree at the peak of success in the 1990s,".
– he says. “These managers are just falling
down in this decade of downward
Japanese shares, which led to total
tendency among investors to gain
funds within the country and to invest
their activities abroad. ” And now, it seems,
We need to re-do the “inoculation”
to sales success continued.

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Regulators in doubt where to wait for crisis

Regulators in doubt: where to wait for a crisis?

The financial crisis seems to have become an expected part of the economic cycle, but they seldom repeat themselves. In 1980-ies. was a hotbed of Latin America, in the late 1990s. – Russia and South-East Asia in 2007-2008. – US banks and the real estate market.
Today, some fear that a new crisis will happen in the asset management sector.

sector companies control $ 87 trillion, of BlackRock investment fund in the world’s biggest manages assets of $ 4.4 trillion, which is higher than the balance of any bank giant.
After the recent financial crisis, regulators have tightened business rules for banks: now they must have more capital and sufficient liquidity to cope with short-term pressures. But it can be an act of “the last and decisive battle.”

Having a situation where banks have sharply reduced their lending, companies are increasingly turning to debt instruments (which are mostly owned by investment funds) for lending, writes the British magazine The Economist.
asset management companies have been the cause of the financial problems in the past.

The collapse in 1998, the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, which led by industry veterans, professors, and two Nobel Prize winners, has led to this shock on Wall Street and the urgent intervention of the Federal Reserve. Trying to save two hedge fund was one of the main reasons for the collapse of Bear Stearns in 2008
That same year, the money market funds managed by a group of Reserve, announced that the net value of its assets fell below $ 1 ( “break the buck”), with the result that the Fed once again had to intervene urgently.
All these events are quite concerned about the regulators.

In January, the international organization Financial Stability Board (Financial Stability Board) published a consultative paper, which offers qualified Asset management companies as “systemically important financial institutions” and their activities are strictly regulated.
The latest report of the Bank of England expressed concern about pension funds and insurance companies that are no longer performing the role of stabilization in the market and are increasingly using short-term market decline to make a profit by buying cheap assets.
In response, the asset management sector expressed their counterarguments. Firstly, funds act as stewards of capital clients, which is placed in separate accounts (with a third party, they act as gatekeepers). Banks such as Lehman Brothers, on the contrary, speculating customers money on their behalf.
Even if the asset management company will declare bankruptcy, its assets will be transferred to a competitor without losses to investors.

Hundreds of closed-end mutual funds every year, and their care has minimal impact on the market and does not require a rescue from the government.
Secondly, a comparison with incorrectly banks; except for hedge funds, asset management companies tend not to work with borrowed money. BlackRock balance of only $ 8.7 billion, while HSBC is almost $ 2.7 trillion, which is 300 times greater. Thus, the funds less vulnerable to an unexpected drop in prices for assets than banks that confirmed the crisis of 2008
Third, there is little evidence that the asset management company can become a cause of panic in the market. According to a nationwide non-profit organization The Investment Company Institute, the fall of 2008 or the stock market is at its lowest point in the mutual funds accounted for only 6% of all the shares of sales in New York.
All these arguments are quite convincing, and regulators do not hide that they are in a difficult situation, like between a rock and a hard place. Their goal is to anticipate future crises that may not be similar to the past. Following this logic, they are closely monitoring those sectors in which there was no crisis.

This alarm can be compared with the risk to the well-known game “Beat the mole” (Whack-a-mole), when the hammer has one seat and a toy mole jumps out from another location.
Some of the problems that worry regulators were partly their fault. For example, lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market is a result of the restrictions imposed after the crisis. If regulators this time decide to “put pressure” on the investment funds and asset management companies, they can get a situation similar to the game “Beat the mole.”

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Stock subsided America

Stock subsided America

Today
US stock futures show
very quiet dynamics before opening
markets, because investors are waiting
Janet Yellen speech. premarket
Futures on the Dow Jones and Nasdaq
slidand down to 0.01%, futures
on S P 500 “thin” in
0.04%.

planned
greater activity in the telecommunications
Sector: T-Mobile and Sprint
Corp start a price war between
themselves after their transaction
merger failed. premarket
declined stock prices Home
Depot (after the announcement about the change
manual). 0.74% shares gained Gap
after the earnings report that exceeded
analysts’ expectations.

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Options

options

Hello!

to * Mo * start of sobstv.sisteme options test) at the end of month. Share results …

* If successful-start on a real MT4 with poss th copy for investors

** Here is what the system = on October 1. = 14%

Options

Revenue growth in Ste. At times, in comparison with August. –NO– was large drawdowns -ok.40%, therefore, optimizes the system further

* Here is what the system = 2 weeks + 2% =Options

should be optimized, with the subsidence – early on Real – / trace-e results of test at the end of September.

With you, Victor

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