Regulators in doubt where to wait for crisis

Regulators in doubt: where to wait for a crisis?

The financial crisis seems to have become an expected part of the economic cycle, but they seldom repeat themselves. In 1980-ies. was a hotbed of Latin America, in the late 1990s. – Russia and South-East Asia in 2007-2008. – US banks and the real estate market.
Today, some fear that a new crisis will happen in the asset management sector.

sector companies control $ 87 trillion, of BlackRock investment fund in the world’s biggest manages assets of $ 4.4 trillion, which is higher than the balance of any bank giant.
After the recent financial crisis, regulators have tightened business rules for banks: now they must have more capital and sufficient liquidity to cope with short-term pressures. But it can be an act of “the last and decisive battle.”

Having a situation where banks have sharply reduced their lending, companies are increasingly turning to debt instruments (which are mostly owned by investment funds) for lending, writes the British magazine The Economist.
asset management companies have been the cause of the financial problems in the past.

The collapse in 1998, the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, which led by industry veterans, professors, and two Nobel Prize winners, has led to this shock on Wall Street and the urgent intervention of the Federal Reserve. Trying to save two hedge fund was one of the main reasons for the collapse of Bear Stearns in 2008
That same year, the money market funds managed by a group of Reserve, announced that the net value of its assets fell below $ 1 ( “break the buck”), with the result that the Fed once again had to intervene urgently.
All these events are quite concerned about the regulators.

In January, the international organization Financial Stability Board (Financial Stability Board) published a consultative paper, which offers qualified Asset management companies as “systemically important financial institutions” and their activities are strictly regulated.
The latest report of the Bank of England expressed concern about pension funds and insurance companies that are no longer performing the role of stabilization in the market and are increasingly using short-term market decline to make a profit by buying cheap assets.
In response, the asset management sector expressed their counterarguments. Firstly, funds act as stewards of capital clients, which is placed in separate accounts (with a third party, they act as gatekeepers). Banks such as Lehman Brothers, on the contrary, speculating customers money on their behalf.
Even if the asset management company will declare bankruptcy, its assets will be transferred to a competitor without losses to investors.

Hundreds of closed-end mutual funds every year, and their care has minimal impact on the market and does not require a rescue from the government.
Secondly, a comparison with incorrectly banks; except for hedge funds, asset management companies tend not to work with borrowed money. BlackRock balance of only $ 8.7 billion, while HSBC is almost $ 2.7 trillion, which is 300 times greater. Thus, the funds less vulnerable to an unexpected drop in prices for assets than banks that confirmed the crisis of 2008
Third, there is little evidence that the asset management company can become a cause of panic in the market. According to a nationwide non-profit organization The Investment Company Institute, the fall of 2008 or the stock market is at its lowest point in the mutual funds accounted for only 6% of all the shares of sales in New York.
All these arguments are quite convincing, and regulators do not hide that they are in a difficult situation, like between a rock and a hard place. Their goal is to anticipate future crises that may not be similar to the past. Following this logic, they are closely monitoring those sectors in which there was no crisis.

This alarm can be compared with the risk to the well-known game “Beat the mole” (Whack-a-mole), when the hammer has one seat and a toy mole jumps out from another location.
Some of the problems that worry regulators were partly their fault. For example, lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market is a result of the restrictions imposed after the crisis. If regulators this time decide to “put pressure” on the investment funds and asset management companies, they can get a situation similar to the game “Beat the mole.”

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Opinion UBS on GBPUSD pair

Opinion UBS on GBP / USD pair

According to analytical forecasts UBS Swiss bank experts, the pair GBP / USD is under strong pressure in anticipation of an early referendum on Scottish independence. Analysts expect that in the context of the forthcoming meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy and the local oversold decline should slow down. "However, we recommend to sell on rise to $ 1.6515 / 25, with a stop above $ 1.6555 and $ 1.6405 purpose / 15" – noted strategists at UBS.

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Facts you should know about Scotland

Facts you should know about Scotland

On the eve of the planned referendum on Scottish independence increasingly appears in the media of news, forecasts, warnings. We all know that Scotland was part of the United Kingdom for more than three centuries, but it is quite different from other parts of the UK. We scored as many as 50 facts you need to know about Scotland.

1. Unicorn – an animal which is depicted on the emblem of Scotland.

2. The shortest regular flights in the world take place in Scotland. trip length is half a mile – from the city Westray to Papa Westray in the Orkney Islands. Travel lasts 1 minute 14 seconds.

3. Scotland takes about 790 islands, 130 of them are uninhabited.

4. Skara Brae – Neolithic village, located on the island of Brae, Orkney, is the oldest building in the UK which dates back to 3100 BC

5. In the Mausoleum of Hamilton in South Lanarkshire longest echo in the world – it lasts 15 seconds.

6. In Scotland, more than 600 square miles of freshwater lakes, including the most famous Loch Ness.

7. The capital of Scotland, Edinburgh is the second largest city after Glasgow.

8. Edinburgh was the first city in the world, in which there was its own fire brigade.

9. As with Rome, Edinburgh was built on seven hills. The city is the largest number of monuments than anywhere else in the world.

10. Prior to 1603 in Scotland had its monarch. After Elizabeth died I, Iakov VI Scots was also controlled as Scotland and England, as a result it has also become Jacob I England.

11. The City of St. Andrews is considered "the birthplace of golf". Here it is played back in the 15th century.

12. It is believed that Koroleva Viktoriya during her visit to the Scottish Highlands smoked a cigarette to ward off gnats.

13.Edinburg became home to Skye Terrier Greyfaersa Bobby, who captured the hearts of all who know his story.

After the owner’s death, Bobby every day for 14 years, came to the cafe, where used to be with the owner, received a muffin and returned to the master’s grave in the cemetery. There he met his death and was buried. In Edinburgh, there is a fountain with a sculpture of Skye Terrier. The monument was erected in 1872 after Bobby’s death, which has earned a reputation as the most faithful dog in the world.

14. In Scotland at the moment – the second largest country in the UK, after England.

15. The highest point of Scotland – Ben Nevis, 1343 meters.

16.Deviz Scotland – “Nemo me impune lacessit”, or: "Nobody will touch me with impunity". It is used by the Order of the Thistle, and in later versions of the Royal Coat of Arms.

17. Scotland – favorite country of the royal family who likes to relax in the castle of Balmoral on the banks of the River Dee.

18. In the north-east of the country girls called “quines”, and young men – “louns”.

19. The first recorded appearance of the Loch Ness Monster was in 565 AD, when the monster attacked one of the followers of St. Columba.

St. Columba – Irish holy monk, the preacher of Christianity in Scotland. St. Columba is one of the twelve apostles of Ireland. In the year 563 Saint Columba founded the first monastery in what is now Scotland and was rector there.

20. The Scottish city of Aberdeen is known as the oil capital of Europe, as well as the Granite City.

21. The deepest lake in Scotland, Loch Morar, reaches a depth of 328 meters, and is considered the seventh deepest lake in the world.

22. The smallest viskarnyu Scotland Edradur in Pitlochry, visit 000posetiteley 100 a year, but it produces only 90 000 liters of malt whiskey.

23. Scotland – birthplace of the oldest tree in Europe, fortingelskogo yew, whose age is about 3000 years old. According to local legend, Pontius Pilate was born in the shadow of the yew tree, and played there when I was little.

24. The raincoat was invented in 1824 in Scotland. It was invented Charlz Makintosh, a chemist from Glasgow. In the UK, the cloak is still called “Mac”.

25. The state religion of Scotland – Christianity.

26. Scotland gained independence in 1314, when Robert Bryus defeated the English army at the Battle of Bannockburn.

27. The Kingdom of Scotland was an independent until May 1, 1707, when the Act of Union Scotland joined England to form a single state – the United Kingdom of Great Britain.

28. July 1, 1999, for the first time since 1707, Scotland got its own parliament.

29. The territory of the country is 78,772 km ?.

30. The country’s population – about 5.2 million, is about 8.5% of the total UK population.

31. Population density – 65.9 people / km ?..

32. In North America, lived about the same as the Scots, as in most of Scotland, while, according to the US Census and Canada, about 5 million people claim that they have Scottish roots.

33. Scotland has its own judicial system, distinct from England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The jury could return a verdict of “guilty”, “not guilty” and “proven guilty.”

34. Bank of Scotland, founded in 1695, is the oldest existing banks in the UK. He was also the first bank in Europe, which began to produce their own banknotes.

35. Among the famous Scottish inventors – Logue John Baird who invented television in 1925, Aleksandr Grem Bell, who invented the telephone in 1876, and Alexander Fleming who invented Penicillin in 1928.

36. The first university clinic in America, Baltimore Infirmary, founded surgeon from Glasgow Granville Sharp Pattison in 1816.

37. In Scotland, the three official languages: English, Scottish and Gaelic, which is spoken by only 1% of the population.

38. In Scotland, 19 universities and colleges, including the University of St Andrews, where they met the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge – William and Kate.

39. The area of ​​Scotland, roughly equal to the area of ​​the Czech Republic, the United Arab Emirates, Panama, the State of Maine in the US or the Japanese island of Hokkaido.

40. Two of the first Prime Minister of Canada – Dzhon Makdonald (1815-1891) and Aleksandr Makkenzi (1822-1892) – were Scottish.

41. One of the most famous products produced in Scotland – whiskey – was invented in China. At first it was distilled monks in Ireland in the early 15th century, and only after 100 years of whiskey came to Scotland.

42. The most infamous Scottish dish – haggis. It is made from sheep’s offal – liver, heart and lungs boiled in mutton stomach. It is not known where it originated, but similar dish mentioned in Greece 2500 years ago.

43. Scotland – birthplace of many great thinkers, including Adam Smith, James Watt, David Hume and Dzhona Styuarta Mill.

44. Among the famous Scottish inventions – logarithms (1614), bitumen (1820) and the tire (1887).

45. Many known Scottish invention – kilts, tartan (checkered pattern) and pipes – not been invented in Scotland. Kilts originated in Ireland, plaid ornaments were discovered in central Europe, the Bronze Age, and the bagpipe came from central Asia.

46. ​​Known representatives of literature – Sir Walter Scott, Lord Byron and Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

47. Flag Scotland is a picture of Andrew’s cross.

48. Thistle is the symbol of Scotland.

49. In Scotland, home to most red-haired people in the world. About 13% of the population of Scotland – red, and 40% of the population are carriers of a recessive gene.

50. The first official international football match was played in 1872 in the West of Scotland between England and Scotland.

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British pound rose as Bank of England head hinted

The British pound rose as the Bank of England head hinted at a rate hike

Managing the Bank of England Mark Karni said Wednesday that the rise in interest rates in the UK in the next few months may be more appropriate if the economy continues to gain momentum despite the weak performance of consumer spending. After his words the British pound rose 1% against the US dollar.
During his speech at the forum of the European Central Bank in Portugal Carney said that in the case of accelerating the growth of wages and investment companies, he will think over whether to keep the Bank of England’s key rate at a record low of 0.25%. Earlier this month, Carney advocated the preservation of the previous monetary policy, since, in his words, the regulator had to balance between accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth in the UK.
Shortly after Carney’s comments British pound rose 1.1%, to 1.2954 US dollar, reaching its highest level in three weeks. The yield on 10-year UK bonds jumped to 1.181%, the highest since the beginning of May, against 1.078% at the close on Tuesday.
"Partial rejection of the stimulus measures are likely to be necessary, as the Bank of England will no longer have to make compromises, and the decision-making process will go to normal", – he said.
Comments Carney suggests that the Bank of England yet close to raising rates after reducing them after last year’s referendum on membership in the UK ES.Istochnik: “News Feed”

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Frank is growing in spite of everything

Frank is growing, in spite of everything

The Swiss franc strengthened on Thursday, after the central bank abandoned the introduction of negative interest rates on deposits, but has confirmed his intention to defend the lower limit set by them for the euro / franc in 2011 at the level of 1.2000. Swiss National Bank has introduced a binding to the euro at the peak of euro crisis, after the massive inflow of foreign capital, streamed into the country in search of refuge. Exchange rate the Swiss franc against the single currency closer to parity, jeopardizing the future of Swiss exporters and intensifying downward pressure on inflation. The central bank promised to buy euros in unlimited quantities to stop the strengthening of the franc on the border 1.20. It was assumed that this measure will be temporary, but it’s been three years, and the upward pressure on the franc does not weaken. Moreover, it has even increased as stimulating monetary policy of the ECB is the euro devaluation. Frank crept close to 1.20 immediately after reduction by the ECB and the launch of a quantitative easing program announcement at the September meeting.

"The three-month Libor rate close to zero, so the minimum exchange rate remains the main instrument for regulating monetary conditions"- Central Bank officials said, adding that the economic situation is deteriorating, and the threat of deflation takes real shape of the strengthening of the franc. According to analysts, the SNB has refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market, because in August the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves have not changed. Some investors had hoped that Switzerland will follow the example and the ECB will lower the deposit rate below zero, to weaken the franc – that is, financial institutions will have to pay extra for hosting central bank money in his accounts.

The Central Bank made it clear that they are willing to resort to such a measure. In addition, in an accompanying statement said that the Central Bank "I am ready to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities"To achieve its political objectives, and, if necessary, take further measures without delay" – it says that the Bank is ready to act at any time, not only at regular meetings. However, until they decide to leave a negative rate reserve. "They keep abreast of"- shoals Michael Sneyd, strategist at BNP Paribas, but Dzheyn Fouli of Rabobank noted a high probability of intervention. A negative rates will remain as a last resort, in the event that the ECB will start an ambitious program of QE. Frank grew by 0.5% against the US dollar and by 0.3% to 1.2069 against the euro. Strengthening of the franc during the euro crisis is likely to have been due to the stampede of investors, but now it seems, is structural. Over the past year the currency weakly responds to risk aversion. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts noted that Switzerland has a chronic imbalance of payments, where the current account surplus is too high, so that it can be eliminated through capital flight. Source: Forexpf.Ru – Forex Market News

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European banks have found risky assets to $ 1

The European banks have found risky assets to $ 1 trillion. dollars

On the balance sheets of European banks, which are currently inspected by regulators, may be potentially unsafe assets to $ 1 trillion. This is the conclusion of Professor Stephen Alexander Berlin European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) and Dr. Josef Korte of the Goethe Institute in Frankfurt am Main.

Conductance regulator stress tests are not able to reveal the real extent of the risk in respect of sovereign bonds. Moreover, the fact that international regulations allow banks to consider them as risk-free, allowing supervisors to ignore this danger.

According to a study by Stephen and courts, 64 of Europe’s largest banks may have the balance sheets of risky assets associated with sovereign bonds, for a total amount of 806 billion euros ($ 1.04 trillion). And even despite the fact that banks can easily pass the last stage of the stress tests, the results of which will be announced in October, according to the authors of the study, they have too little capital, or, at least, very little excess capital.

"Banks too much invested in sovereign bonds, because they are amenable to the EU as the promotion and "banks are accumulating too much risk if they do not have to keep the capital, which reflects economic risks"- Stephen said. Results of the study Corte and Stephen testify that risks are localized within countries, which can cause a domino effect, when the problems of one country would entail a difficulty in other countries of the Union, like the case of Cyprus, where banks have invested EUR 5.8 billion in Greek debt, provoked a crisis that forced the island nation to ask for financial assistance to Europe and the International Monetary Fund.

According to experts, the majority of high-risk bank is located in Spain and Italy.

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Europe closed yesterday on slide

Europe closed yesterday on the slide

European
trading on Monday to close at minor
note. The reasons – uncertainty in the background
clashes in Hong Kong (due to them
They were forced to close their offices
in many banks, including
branches of European lenders) and general
fears that the euro zone economy
weakens.

Index
Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.38%.
FTSE yielded 0.04% market CAC
40 gave 0,83%, DAX – 0,71%. 15
European national indexes of 18
yesterday showed the “red
outfit. ”

Yesterday
data were published on a consolidated
index of business and consumer
confidence in the euro-zone economy in September
index lost a few points, and
It is now at the level of a ten
minimum.

serious
all among the 10 industry sub-indexes
I hurt the banking sector. Thus, 2.5%
HSBC capitalization lost over
by Hong Kong riots. C 4.3%
goodbye Commerzbank –
It began an investigation on charges
the creditor by US authorities with money
money.

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USDJPY Dollar increases against yen investors

USD / JPY: Dollar increases against the yen, investors await US employment report

On Friday, the rising exchange rate
The dollar against the yen, the participants
the market are waiting for the publication of the September
Data on US employment.

Today the dollar has
rose by 0.39% – to 108.88 yen on Wednesday was
recorded in the six-year maximum
110.09. For the week the dollar against the yen
already lost about 0.4%.

Analysts note that
the fact that the dollar exchange rate against the yen resist
above 108, thus reassure investors,
that the dollar will rise. But until now, no
clearly, this upward trend or not,
so now it would be wiser to buy
in moments of reduction of quotations – advises
Director of State Street in the foreign exchange market
Tokyo Bart Wakabayashi.

Meanwhile, the euro
fell by 0.19% – up to $ 1.2646, while the week
It loses about 0.25%. Especially the euro fell
Yesterday, on Thursday, when the ECB announced
plans to buy up debt in the framework of incentives
bank lending and accelerating
stagnant euro zone economy.

Strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo
Unity Ishikawa said that it was
adjustment of long positions in the dollar.
And if today’s employment report
The US will be better than expected, begin again
dollar purchase.

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Asian markets are in minor key

Asian markets are in a minor key

At 9.32 MSK Japanese
Nikkei index lost 1%; Hang
Seng “left” down to 0.7%; Shanghai
Composite suddenly increased to 0.3%; Australian
S P / ASX "lost “0.9%;
and the Korean Kospi Index slid
down to 0.4%.

The reason is almost
overall fall – in general “disorder”
World markets: Europe, fever, high
volatility in the US, where tonight
also fell major indexes falling
the price of oil. However, for example, in the fall
Japanese index “to blame” for the most
part of the strengthening of the yen, given that
the main share of “systemically important”
companies in the country of the Rising Sun
work for export, and thus a strong
their yen is not very profitable.

And the dollar and euro
again today fell against the yen
– and after the shares fell and the world-famous
“Blue chips”. Sony, Nissan and
Toyota lost 2% each;
Hitachi Ltd. dropped 4.5%;
Mitsubishi slid down on
3.2%; Mazda Motor Corp. weakened on
4.7%. Only Konica Minolta Inc. gone
Counter-trend” and showed an increase
0.8% after being presented the “smart
glass “with full-color holographic
image.

In the Hong Kong market
he doctor ordered weaken: firstly,
It plays the role of political instability;
and secondly, the relationship with Wall Street here
It is quite high. Many banks have lost
and technology companies, serious
reduction observed in heavyweights
Hang Seng Index. telecommunications
China Mobile Ltd lost giant
1.5%; one of the largest creditors
Industrial Commerzial Bank lowered
their rates by 1.4%. developer
online gaming NetDragon Websoft Inc.
I retreated to 2.5%, and its competitor Boyaa
Interactive International Ltd decreased by 1.8%.

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As Apple stole from banks dream

As Apple stole from banks dream

Victor LysenkoOsnovatel and CEO RoketbankaNovaya Apple Pay technology does not threaten the banks and payment systems. It just would deprive them of a monopoly on information about customer behavior, and this is a huge source of future income

The last few years, bankers anxiously glancing at the Apple side, waiting for the invasion of their territory. Around the preparations for the attack were many rumors. Finally, a week ago, the company launched its project payments Apple Pay, and it is now possible since the facts in hand to find out what it is.

In connection with an Apple campaign on the financial market there are many questions. whether banks will suffer? Is there a threat of payment systems? The answer Samsung? And in the end, what is so new Apple’s done, what not to do to her?

Banks had something to fear from the very beginning of Apple smartphones look like a logical device for payment. In 2012, there was PassBook application that allows you to use loyalty cards and coupons, well, about 800 million accounts with iTumes attached to them by credit card customers and say nothing.

Not enough detail. And this year, Apple has made the last few steps: quickly add user identification by fingerprint, built into their smartphones NFC function, as well as contracts with payment systems, several major banks and retail chains with the United States.

What is the process of buying in a store using Apple Pay? To begin, the user needs to bind to service their bank card by already tied to iTunes or add a new one. It’s enough to take a picture of the map and enter the security code. The store at the checkout buyer brings the smartphone to the terminal on the screen pops up a notice of the impending purchase, for which authorization is sufficient to press a finger on the Touch ID button. The coincidence of the fingerprint is the proof of payment, and money is deducted from the card attached, the customer is informed about this phone vibration. This is one of the simplest procedures offered at the market.

Apple – is not the first company to try their hand at mobile payments, and they still take root is not very smooth. It turned out that simply connect the card to the mobile app is not enough: pay card itself often faster than waiting for the application to determine which store you are and what you should do. And the user’s behavior in this case, changes little. But Apple, in the first place, really implemented payments “in one click”, and secondly, find a way to move to the phone from a leather wallet is not only a bank card, and all that it is, including the loyalty program cards and transportation cards. And thirdly, already a huge amount of users linked to the iTunes charts in its assets.

It is important that this is a safer method of payment than payment cards. The data of the card when making the payment does not appear anywhere instead of a smartphone and the terminal exchange “token” – a special code, which is formed for a specific transaction. This was possible thanks published in March this year, the consortium EMVCo specifications, brings together the largest payment systems (Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Discover, JCB). That is, the attackers are much less likely to intercept card data and use them for fraud.

So, what does this mean for the payment systems? Their position is only strengthened, because Apple now uses not only have they created earlier infrastructure in the form of credit cards, processes, etc., but also a new specification for contactless payments.

What to expect the banks? Banks can temporarily relax them in the near future is not threatened. Now Apple has agreed with the six largest banks in the United States (American Express, Bank of America, Capital One Bank, Chase, Citi and Wells Fargo) that Apple the Pay service will serve their cards. Many are not included in this list of banks got in line and wish to connect too. According to preliminary information, Apple will take with them 0.15% of the amount of transactions carried out. For most countries, it is quite a moderate percentage, and the banks will be able to a “pull”. That is much in the pocket of the banks climb Apple does not plan, in fact, like to make a payment hold.

Does Apple take the place of the banks? No, I do not want – the company does not get into the business in which it is necessary to come from an unexpected transaction in Bulgaria, and there are not huge revenues to explain to tens of millions of customers, where in the discharge of their map. For Apple, it is more important to capitalize on the sale of their devices than to climb into a complex card business of banks. Rather, it repeats the story of the sale of music tracks through iTunes at a low price: if they were all amazed low price of music supposedly not profitable for Apple’s, and the company has earned a lot of money by selling players.

Already connected to the project, the Bank exhaled with relief and rejoicing retreated threat advertising partnership with Apple on your site or on the ATM screen. However, Apple has stolen from banks dream. The last few years a lot of people told the banks that they have the Holy Grail – information about the buying behavior of customers, which can be converted into a huge source of revenue through targeted offers to users and promotional mechanics. This Grail exists, but the banks of it will get nothing, Apple wants to pick it up yourself. The company is already gaining in his team of specialists in loyalty programs and its advertising platform iAd she already has.

Apple Pay Promotion will not, of course, an easy walk in the park. A number of major reteylovyh networks, including such giants as Wal-mart, Kmart, 7-Eleven, and Best Buy, said they will block at accepting payments via Apple Pay. And they do it not just to Apple peak: the network together and create their own application called CurrentC, which is expected to launch next year. And retailers want to exclude from the chain more and payment systems to save on commissions: the money should be charged not with a credit card, and directly from the customer’s account. However, so far none of the banks is not connected to this system.

It is clear that the fight for the NFC-payments and transaction information of clients to be sharp. And the main competitor, Samsung, will not sit still and try to counterattack. Galaxy S5 smartphone already lets you log in to the PayPal payment system, fingerprint, and there are rumors that in the near future, the company will present and “smart” watches with similar payment functions.

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