End of QE will result in policy for dollar

The end of QE will result in policy for the dollar?

As expected,
US central bank last week
He confirmed the end of their program
QE (QE). approached
by the end of the six-year method
infusion of money into the economy
through large-scale asset purchases.

While it is
It is still difficult to determine the effect of
Of QE, it looks like it worked,
as expected. "Easy Money"
spawned
more resilient
economic recovery
US and
employment is growing strongly.
Low US interest rates mean
that most
part of the extra money found
its way into other
assets –
such as
housing and stocks.

But as the lead
the dollar itself now?

While,
when the dollar
It fell sharply, the Federal Reserve
expanded system
aggressive QE
In 2009, a pair of sterling / dollar
trading at
the level of 1.50-1.65.
a weakening dollar
(Above $ 1.65) were
the beginning of 2011 and at the beginning of this year,
which coincided
to the time when recovery
economy loses momentum,
in spite of the huge sums of injections.
Other factors, too,
could influence the behavior of currencies.
The fall of the dollar at the end of
2013 took place against the backdrop of a partial
government detachment
After the congress, where
failed to agree a deal for
increasing public
expenses.

The Bank also
I did not conduct the program
QE England (in 2009 and then
Again in October 2011,
July 2012), that
It coincides with the fundamental period
the weakness of sterling. Lb
It fell below $ 1.50 after the general elections in
May
2010 where
to form a government.
And the pair fell back
in early 2013, when the UK
It lost its top AAA credit rating.
Nothing like this before
It happened
in the UK since 1970.

What we can
extract useful
from this? A strong economy and the end of QE –
positive
tendency to
dollar, but the litmus test will be
Information later –
whether the recovery will last
in the long term without extra
intervention? sustainable recovery
can reinforce expectations that interest
US interest rates will rise faster and
faster than previously thought, that
Again, potentially
involve all
more dollars back.

recovery
the dollar
6% against sterling from June
reflects some hope that it
happen, as well as the risk
weakening UK.
However, as in the UK,
none
confident that US interest rates
will grow in the near future – in
?? particular in connection with the global
changes. weak growth
in the euro area and emerging markets –
as the headwinds,
that interfere
American
export.
Mitigation of global demand and the recent
a sharp decline in oil prices could
prompt the Fed that it is necessary
postpone raising interest rates if the
they slow down inflation. Meanwhile,
the political situation can still
more
complicate any forecast.

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European banks are unhappy with Mario Draghi

European banks are unhappy with Mario Draghi

representatives of control
ECB Governing Council wish to speak against Mario
Draghi today. He said yesterday
Reuters.

The national central
banks operating in the euro zone plan
led the European challenge
Central Bank Mario Draghi this
Wednesday for his “secretive style” management,
urging him to act more
collectively. especially bankers
outraged that Draghi announced publicly
about the purpose of immediate increase in the balance
ECB, though the council was not going to do
any public statements.

"Mario became some
… more secretive and less collegial.
National leaders sometimes banks
feel in the dark", – he said,
a veteran of the ECB. Even members of the board
The ECB had not been informed in advance
on two key recent statements,
said two source.

Following the
stress tests of European banks, many
investors wary – they are afraid
repetition of 2010, when the Irish banks
We passed the stress tests shortly before
as the country’s financial system collapsed,
writes the FT.

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Moscow Hide and Seek US companies are breaking

Moscow Hide and Seek: US companies are breaking the law with her daughters sanction companies

The Wall Street Journal raises a very interesting topic in its pages. With Russian companies from "blacklist" American partners can not work. But in a company registered anywhere in Monaco, and under the control of foreign nationals, it is difficult to suspect the closest relative of concern "Kalashnikov". How to get out of such situations?

American
Company to ensure compliance
sanctions should first deal with the
the intricacies of Russian branches
firms. Western firms that are trying to
to avoid the consequences of sanctions against
Russia, are facing a fundamental
problem: they will have to start
to find out, whether owned by a cute
partner company of a larger company
from the sanctions list.

some
individuals and companies from the “black list”
We have extensive contacts with other firms
in different countries around the world. And so
this raises an ethical question: how
restrict business with Sanctions
list, but gracefully save
due to the “clean” firms? And where is the guarantee,
that the company with which you are working,
is no second cousin’s daughter “Rosneft”?

The scale of the tragedy

The United States contributed to the
sanctions lists 50 companies and 57
human. These units have a proportion of 107
ownership or full control
thousands of other companies worldwide
(Sometimes indirectly) according collected
Dow Jones Risk Compliance data.
Such native and “cousins” daughter can
It is found in more than 70 countries
the world (including, in fact, the United States).

The objectives of the recent
sanctions are different from other sanctions
modes that are normally focused
on order, more isolated from
global business community. Now all
harder, and US companies
search of partners should be as
attentive and well-sorted
tangle of branches of Russian companies,
to ensure compliance with the law.

American
entrepreneurs say: “Indeed
extremely difficult to comply with the anti-Russian
sanctions”. The main problem – to find out
exactly who owns what (taking into account,
that is information that has traditionally
not advertised).

Ignorance of the law does not relieve from responsibility

Among the companies,
having regard to Russia – for example,
manufacturer Arctic icebreakers,
Finnish company Arctech Helsinki
Shipyard Inc. It is 50% owned
Russia’s United Shipbuilding
Corporation, according to its own same
website and to Dow Agency
Jones. In July, all business have been banned
Due to the Russian shipbuilder
and given its share of the Finnish company,
Americans stop working yet
Finns.

representatives
Arctech to a request from the Wall
Street Journal on the subject do not
responded.

It’s just
one example. The situation for the US
Business is further complicated by the fact that
US authorities do not take
work on the preparation of “suspicious” list
subsidiaries, and companies in the search
Business partners must not only,
scrutinize sanctions
lists by themselves, so still and alone
conduct a study to identify
the rights of potential accessories
partner.

It means
additional investments in the development
security service, hiring professionals
appropriate level.

And what would happen if
someone inattentive Americans
the enemy will continue to support the firm
bypassing the sanctions? Everything is simple: in this case,
the company is facing straight
responsibility, because it violates
sanctions laws. Even if the company does not
He knows that actually works
for the benefit of Russia, it should still
fine.

"gray list"

There are so
called “gray list” – it
includes, for example, the Bank of Moscow and Rosneft.
It is less categorical, in relations
with companies belonging to it, is prohibited
Only certain types of operations –
e.g., crediting. This sectoral
sanctions list. These firms are imposed
less restrictive in partnership
American corporations, however,
experts say that here, too, is
“Blow on water”. “As soon as you learn
that the company is in the spectrum
the interests of the US government,
you should think twice before
start working with it. ”

important and
“Interest” company affiliation
to sanction the management or
“Parent company.” For example, “disgraced
the proportion of “50% – this is a strict ban on
any links. Such Russian companies
– “untouchables” for Western business
(Such, for example, all of our concerns
arms industry or the same
most shipbuilders). But “when dealing
now, Russian share of which –
only 33%, I would definitely sweating. And be found
a more suitable partner, “- say
experienced analysts and experts of the American
business.

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Results of press conference Sistema increased

The results of the press conference: Sistema increased by 100%, the dollar fell to 61 rubles

In
during his annual press conference
Vladimir Putin did not surprise anyone.

By
about the collapse of the ruble, it was stated that
The central bank and the government are doing everything
right (albeit a little late)
that has all the resources in Russia for
early exit from the crisis and that through
2 years we live very well.
Russia’s economy will grow in parallel
with the global economy, but it is undeniable
that we live in difficult times.

The president
covertly hinted to banks that
they were in no hurry to raise interest until
mortgage (but banks in an attempt to
survive anyway will do it).

Highly
Much has been said about the Russian business: according to
President, it will be provided
full support, ranging from
four-year tax holiday and
ending preferential lending.

Igor
Sechin was named an effective manager.
Putin said that Sechin will continue
work and achieve good results.

Main
President’s promise is that
everything is adequately and properly, and in
cooperation with new business partners
(Turkey and China, for example) Russia
achieve strengthen its position on the
all directions.

Ruble
during Putin’s first performances
a little weak, but then rose: Now
USDRUB is about
61 rubles.

AFC
System” has soared by 100%: Putin is not only
set free Evtushenkova, but still
and promised to invite him for the annual
meeting with representatives of business.

apparently,
to balance the situation today
He was arrested in absentia son Murtaza
Rakhimov, who led the “Bashneft”.
It is located in Austria, and the appearance of
in the zone of the Russian legislation
It will be taken into custody.

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Screencast Maks Kayzer financial crisis was followed

Screencast: Maks Kayzer. The financial crisis was followed by a bank

In the markets of the economic disaster, and it began with the Persian Gulf – all the markets are falling. In the next issue of the transfer "Overview Max Keizer" trying to understand what the future of our economies.

"Fed bubble burst" – the newspaper writes Bloomberg. We are waiting for a new financial crisis? And after him – the bank? And all because of falling world oil prices. But the companies involved in the production of shale oil and gas, thrown into
the market a large amount of bonds to finance their business – this
Fed policy has contributed a lot. And How
Now pay?

Meanwhile in the UK are developing rapidly
IT-technologies, as well as online TV. This tells
Program guest – TV presenter and former banker Brayan Rouz.

Video:

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Canadian Dollar on Wednesday evening has surprised

Canadian Dollar on Wednesday evening has surprised traders

Last night
the Canadian dollar was literally
a state of “free fall” when
The Bank of Canada unexpectedly announced that
reduces the rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. The pair USD / CAD,
for example, the Canadian fell more than 300
points. Now the pair has steadily
It is trading at levels of about 1.23 – to 10:50
by MSK at around 1.2358.

Plus,
Yesterday’s reports showed that wholesale
Canadian sales in November fell by
0.3%, while expected to only 0.2%. Later, the head of the Bank of Canada delivered a speech,
Now many couples with Canadian gradually adjusted to higher levels.
For example, the pair AUD / CAD yesterday
rose from the level of 0.9924 to 1.0036, and today
It traded near the level of 1.0000.

USD / CAD rose yesterday,
After a few levels of resistance.
The pair has traded almost unchanged
Asian and European sessions, but
in the US rose sharply. Now
Resistance is expected at
1.2387, support – at the level of 1.2261. It is possible to rise to 1.30 within a few months.

In addition to these pairs
Canadian shaken as the position of pairs
EUR / CAD, NZD / CAD, CAD / CHF (see
graphics).

Canadian Dollar on Wednesday evening has surprised

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US SEC has attended to safety of informants sneak

US SEC has attended to the safety of informants, sneak

SEC
USA
– Commission for the Securities and Exchange Commission
– early check for that, are not subject to
Does it harassed informants
within their corporations. Employees,
that notice within their companies
corporate violations may report
this regulator. The company is unlikely
I feel great joy about it,
and now the SEC
began to fear that her informants
may be subjected to repression and
negative attitudes at work.

AT
the last few weeks, according to
informed sources Wall
Street Journal, SEC sent
letters to a number of companies in which required
to provide certain documents,
which theoretically can show
employees oppression facts. For example,
Sometimes corporations require written
failure employees from profits that
those obtained by “yabednichestva”
(In most cases this financial
remuneration). In this case, disappear
almost all incentives “knock” on
home company but deep feelings
satisfaction. SEC this practice
intends
to expose and stop.

FROM
2011 SEC program
by
reward informants realized
almost 20 times payment is usually not
exceeded $ 1 million. but
One particularly corrosive informant
nayabednichali of 58 million dollars, “surrendering”
their employer – Bank
of America, which
subsequently fined 16.65 billion. Each
year since SEC
gets
thousands of slander, but the real
investigations begin only in small
share of them, because the informant must
report a significant regulator,
accurate and detailed information,
and more desirable to complete the documentary
confirmation.

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First transactions on MasterCard cards across

The first transactions on MasterCard cards across the NBTS were successful

The first “five”
Russian banks (Gazprombank, “Russia”
SMP Bank, “Alexander” and MDM Bank)
from January 30, “including” a new channel
processing domestic transactions
of MasterCard cards. These banks have spent the first full-fledged operations through processing
NBTS center.

About the first results of the transition to processing
NBTS reports the Central Bank of the Russian Federation –
through it pass all the calculations
new payment system.

Recall that the connection
NBTS to be completed by 31 March.
In mid-January, the Russian branch
MasterCard signed a contract with the NBTS to transfer
Clearing operations in the country. AT
the end of January of the same intent
said Visa, but still it is not an agreement with
signed.

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Another floating currency will be hryvnia National

Another floating currency will be the hryvnia – the National Bank of Ukraine raises

National Bank
Ukraine 6 February raises key
the discount rate by 5.5 percentage points and actually
let the hryvnia in the “free floating”
t. To. The stop control
currency rate fixing. Ukrainian
regulator went to these measures on the recommendation of
The International Monetary Fund.

The key rate in the country
It amounts to 19.5% from Friday (today – 14%), according to the
a statement of the National Bank of Ukraine. regulator
also cancels the daily exchange
auctions. According to the head of the National Bank
Valeriy Gontareva regulator
retain some administrative
measures, including mandatory sale
foreign exporters and revenue
restrictions on individual currency purchases.

The foreign exchange market is still
It is in “panic”
– Gontareva told reporters today.
International reserves of Ukraine today
at the lowest level in 11 years. In past
year, the hryvnia exchange rate has shown the maximum
decline against the dollar – the national currency
fell by 48%, Bloomberg reported.

Now in Kyiv works
IMF mission. government of Ukraine
hopes for financial assistance plus
the $ 17 billion, which contributed to the country
in the past year. On Tuesday, the Minister
Finance of Ukraine Natalia Yaresko
He said that the country needed an additional $ 15
billion.

At 14:13 MSK on the pair USD / UAH trading at 16.4755.

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Is Eurogroup reconcile Germany and Greece Providing

Is Eurogroup reconcile Germany and Greece? Providing bailout questioned

Today ministers
Finance Eurozone and Greece third
again meet to try again
come to a common agreement. will
extend the bailout program for Greece
after Germany on Thursday
rejected attempts to change the terms of Athens
the current agreement – while under
question.

Yesterday, Athens and Berlin
exchanged mutual claims that
again showed to what
extent complicated relations of Greece
and Germany after the coming to power of the left
SYRIZA coalition. Greek government
It confirms that it will not change
the wording of its request for an extension
aid program – it simply gives
the possibility of the Eurogroup on Friday to take
the proposal or reject it. About
This writes The Financial Times. "it
It shows who wants to find
decision, and who is not", – he told the newspaper
one of the Greek officials.

Germany, as reported
Bloomberg, at the meeting demanded
Greece drafting a new request,
which would consist of two or three sentences,
talking about what she asks for extension
the current program and is ready to perform
all conditions.

By the way, the final request
Greece looks like this: the government
asks countries to extend assistance program
"on mutually acceptable financial and
administrative conditions". Again
the representative of Germany said on
meeting of the working group that the Greek
policy deliberately used this
formulation and to fear it
"Trojan horse" – that phrase can
used for the destruction of the present
cooperation schemes. The letter also
nowhere does not explicitly refer willingness
Greece to checks and inspections by
creditors. As reported back in
midweek, Athens promise not
take unilateral steps and
We are willing to strive for a successful conclusion
programs.

According to Berlin’s
He writes The Wall Street Journal, any rash
Athens concessions may be dangerous
than a Greek exit from the eurozone, because
they can give effect to the left
populist parties in other European
countries – in Spain or Portugal,
eg. Other members of
European Union are more
peacefully and believe that the fact of
letters of request direction is already
a good sign, it means ready to Athens
compromise.

Recall that before
Greece refuses to do
the extension of the current conversation
program and its policy asked for
bridge loan for three months, and during this
time to negotiate and revise
all conditions of cooperation with creditors.

According to the respondents
edition of The Financial Times Europe
officials, a compromise Friday quite
It can be achieved. If Greece’s application
is rejected, the country actually
March 1 remains without external support
– The European Central Bank will roll
aid program Greek banks, and
They soon encounter
lack of money for debt service.
The most pessimistic scenario – it
Greek exit from the eurozone.

By 10:19 on MSK EUR / USD pair continued reduction and trading at 1.1346 (0.19% drop).

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