Frank is growing in spite of everything

Frank is growing, in spite of everything

The Swiss franc strengthened on Thursday, after the central bank abandoned the introduction of negative interest rates on deposits, but has confirmed his intention to defend the lower limit set by them for the euro / franc in 2011 at the level of 1.2000. Swiss National Bank has introduced a binding to the euro at the peak of euro crisis, after the massive inflow of foreign capital, streamed into the country in search of refuge. Exchange rate the Swiss franc against the single currency closer to parity, jeopardizing the future of Swiss exporters and intensifying downward pressure on inflation. The central bank promised to buy euros in unlimited quantities to stop the strengthening of the franc on the border 1.20. It was assumed that this measure will be temporary, but it’s been three years, and the upward pressure on the franc does not weaken. Moreover, it has even increased as stimulating monetary policy of the ECB is the euro devaluation. Frank crept close to 1.20 immediately after reduction by the ECB and the launch of a quantitative easing program announcement at the September meeting.

"The three-month Libor rate close to zero, so the minimum exchange rate remains the main instrument for regulating monetary conditions"- Central Bank officials said, adding that the economic situation is deteriorating, and the threat of deflation takes real shape of the strengthening of the franc. According to analysts, the SNB has refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market, because in August the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves have not changed. Some investors had hoped that Switzerland will follow the example and the ECB will lower the deposit rate below zero, to weaken the franc – that is, financial institutions will have to pay extra for hosting central bank money in his accounts.

The Central Bank made it clear that they are willing to resort to such a measure. In addition, in an accompanying statement said that the Central Bank "I am ready to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities"To achieve its political objectives, and, if necessary, take further measures without delay" – it says that the Bank is ready to act at any time, not only at regular meetings. However, until they decide to leave a negative rate reserve. "They keep abreast of"- shoals Michael Sneyd, strategist at BNP Paribas, but Dzheyn Fouli of Rabobank noted a high probability of intervention. A negative rates will remain as a last resort, in the event that the ECB will start an ambitious program of QE. Frank grew by 0.5% against the US dollar and by 0.3% to 1.2069 against the euro. Strengthening of the franc during the euro crisis is likely to have been due to the stampede of investors, but now it seems, is structural. Over the past year the currency weakly responds to risk aversion. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts noted that Switzerland has a chronic imbalance of payments, where the current account surplus is too high, so that it can be eliminated through capital flight. Source: Forexpf.Ru – Forex Market News

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European banks have found risky assets to $ 1

The European banks have found risky assets to $ 1 trillion. dollars

On the balance sheets of European banks, which are currently inspected by regulators, may be potentially unsafe assets to $ 1 trillion. This is the conclusion of Professor Stephen Alexander Berlin European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) and Dr. Josef Korte of the Goethe Institute in Frankfurt am Main.

Conductance regulator stress tests are not able to reveal the real extent of the risk in respect of sovereign bonds. Moreover, the fact that international regulations allow banks to consider them as risk-free, allowing supervisors to ignore this danger.

According to a study by Stephen and courts, 64 of Europe’s largest banks may have the balance sheets of risky assets associated with sovereign bonds, for a total amount of 806 billion euros ($ 1.04 trillion). And even despite the fact that banks can easily pass the last stage of the stress tests, the results of which will be announced in October, according to the authors of the study, they have too little capital, or, at least, very little excess capital.

"Banks too much invested in sovereign bonds, because they are amenable to the EU as the promotion and "banks are accumulating too much risk if they do not have to keep the capital, which reflects economic risks"- Stephen said. Results of the study Corte and Stephen testify that risks are localized within countries, which can cause a domino effect, when the problems of one country would entail a difficulty in other countries of the Union, like the case of Cyprus, where banks have invested EUR 5.8 billion in Greek debt, provoked a crisis that forced the island nation to ask for financial assistance to Europe and the International Monetary Fund.

According to experts, the majority of high-risk bank is located in Spain and Italy.

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Europe closed yesterday on slide

Europe closed yesterday on the slide

European
trading on Monday to close at minor
note. The reasons – uncertainty in the background
clashes in Hong Kong (due to them
They were forced to close their offices
in many banks, including
branches of European lenders) and general
fears that the euro zone economy
weakens.

Index
Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.38%.
FTSE yielded 0.04% market CAC
40 gave 0,83%, DAX – 0,71%. 15
European national indexes of 18
yesterday showed the “red
outfit. ”

Yesterday
data were published on a consolidated
index of business and consumer
confidence in the euro-zone economy in September
index lost a few points, and
It is now at the level of a ten
minimum.

serious
all among the 10 industry sub-indexes
I hurt the banking sector. Thus, 2.5%
HSBC capitalization lost over
by Hong Kong riots. C 4.3%
goodbye Commerzbank –
It began an investigation on charges
the creditor by US authorities with money
money.

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USDJPY Dollar increases against yen investors

USD / JPY: Dollar increases against the yen, investors await US employment report

On Friday, the rising exchange rate
The dollar against the yen, the participants
the market are waiting for the publication of the September
Data on US employment.

Today the dollar has
rose by 0.39% – to 108.88 yen on Wednesday was
recorded in the six-year maximum
110.09. For the week the dollar against the yen
already lost about 0.4%.

Analysts note that
the fact that the dollar exchange rate against the yen resist
above 108, thus reassure investors,
that the dollar will rise. But until now, no
clearly, this upward trend or not,
so now it would be wiser to buy
in moments of reduction of quotations – advises
Director of State Street in the foreign exchange market
Tokyo Bart Wakabayashi.

Meanwhile, the euro
fell by 0.19% – up to $ 1.2646, while the week
It loses about 0.25%. Especially the euro fell
Yesterday, on Thursday, when the ECB announced
plans to buy up debt in the framework of incentives
bank lending and accelerating
stagnant euro zone economy.

Strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo
Unity Ishikawa said that it was
adjustment of long positions in the dollar.
And if today’s employment report
The US will be better than expected, begin again
dollar purchase.

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Asian markets are in minor key

Asian markets are in a minor key

At 9.32 MSK Japanese
Nikkei index lost 1%; Hang
Seng “left” down to 0.7%; Shanghai
Composite suddenly increased to 0.3%; Australian
S P / ASX "lost “0.9%;
and the Korean Kospi Index slid
down to 0.4%.

The reason is almost
overall fall – in general “disorder”
World markets: Europe, fever, high
volatility in the US, where tonight
also fell major indexes falling
the price of oil. However, for example, in the fall
Japanese index “to blame” for the most
part of the strengthening of the yen, given that
the main share of “systemically important”
companies in the country of the Rising Sun
work for export, and thus a strong
their yen is not very profitable.

And the dollar and euro
again today fell against the yen
– and after the shares fell and the world-famous
“Blue chips”. Sony, Nissan and
Toyota lost 2% each;
Hitachi Ltd. dropped 4.5%;
Mitsubishi slid down on
3.2%; Mazda Motor Corp. weakened on
4.7%. Only Konica Minolta Inc. gone
Counter-trend” and showed an increase
0.8% after being presented the “smart
glass “with full-color holographic
image.

In the Hong Kong market
he doctor ordered weaken: firstly,
It plays the role of political instability;
and secondly, the relationship with Wall Street here
It is quite high. Many banks have lost
and technology companies, serious
reduction observed in heavyweights
Hang Seng Index. telecommunications
China Mobile Ltd lost giant
1.5%; one of the largest creditors
Industrial Commerzial Bank lowered
their rates by 1.4%. developer
online gaming NetDragon Websoft Inc.
I retreated to 2.5%, and its competitor Boyaa
Interactive International Ltd decreased by 1.8%.

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As Apple stole from banks dream

As Apple stole from banks dream

Victor LysenkoOsnovatel and CEO RoketbankaNovaya Apple Pay technology does not threaten the banks and payment systems. It just would deprive them of a monopoly on information about customer behavior, and this is a huge source of future income

The last few years, bankers anxiously glancing at the Apple side, waiting for the invasion of their territory. Around the preparations for the attack were many rumors. Finally, a week ago, the company launched its project payments Apple Pay, and it is now possible since the facts in hand to find out what it is.

In connection with an Apple campaign on the financial market there are many questions. whether banks will suffer? Is there a threat of payment systems? The answer Samsung? And in the end, what is so new Apple’s done, what not to do to her?

Banks had something to fear from the very beginning of Apple smartphones look like a logical device for payment. In 2012, there was PassBook application that allows you to use loyalty cards and coupons, well, about 800 million accounts with iTumes attached to them by credit card customers and say nothing.

Not enough detail. And this year, Apple has made the last few steps: quickly add user identification by fingerprint, built into their smartphones NFC function, as well as contracts with payment systems, several major banks and retail chains with the United States.

What is the process of buying in a store using Apple Pay? To begin, the user needs to bind to service their bank card by already tied to iTunes or add a new one. It’s enough to take a picture of the map and enter the security code. The store at the checkout buyer brings the smartphone to the terminal on the screen pops up a notice of the impending purchase, for which authorization is sufficient to press a finger on the Touch ID button. The coincidence of the fingerprint is the proof of payment, and money is deducted from the card attached, the customer is informed about this phone vibration. This is one of the simplest procedures offered at the market.

Apple – is not the first company to try their hand at mobile payments, and they still take root is not very smooth. It turned out that simply connect the card to the mobile app is not enough: pay card itself often faster than waiting for the application to determine which store you are and what you should do. And the user’s behavior in this case, changes little. But Apple, in the first place, really implemented payments “in one click”, and secondly, find a way to move to the phone from a leather wallet is not only a bank card, and all that it is, including the loyalty program cards and transportation cards. And thirdly, already a huge amount of users linked to the iTunes charts in its assets.

It is important that this is a safer method of payment than payment cards. The data of the card when making the payment does not appear anywhere instead of a smartphone and the terminal exchange “token” – a special code, which is formed for a specific transaction. This was possible thanks published in March this year, the consortium EMVCo specifications, brings together the largest payment systems (Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Discover, JCB). That is, the attackers are much less likely to intercept card data and use them for fraud.

So, what does this mean for the payment systems? Their position is only strengthened, because Apple now uses not only have they created earlier infrastructure in the form of credit cards, processes, etc., but also a new specification for contactless payments.

What to expect the banks? Banks can temporarily relax them in the near future is not threatened. Now Apple has agreed with the six largest banks in the United States (American Express, Bank of America, Capital One Bank, Chase, Citi and Wells Fargo) that Apple the Pay service will serve their cards. Many are not included in this list of banks got in line and wish to connect too. According to preliminary information, Apple will take with them 0.15% of the amount of transactions carried out. For most countries, it is quite a moderate percentage, and the banks will be able to a “pull”. That is much in the pocket of the banks climb Apple does not plan, in fact, like to make a payment hold.

Does Apple take the place of the banks? No, I do not want – the company does not get into the business in which it is necessary to come from an unexpected transaction in Bulgaria, and there are not huge revenues to explain to tens of millions of customers, where in the discharge of their map. For Apple, it is more important to capitalize on the sale of their devices than to climb into a complex card business of banks. Rather, it repeats the story of the sale of music tracks through iTunes at a low price: if they were all amazed low price of music supposedly not profitable for Apple’s, and the company has earned a lot of money by selling players.

Already connected to the project, the Bank exhaled with relief and rejoicing retreated threat advertising partnership with Apple on your site or on the ATM screen. However, Apple has stolen from banks dream. The last few years a lot of people told the banks that they have the Holy Grail – information about the buying behavior of customers, which can be converted into a huge source of revenue through targeted offers to users and promotional mechanics. This Grail exists, but the banks of it will get nothing, Apple wants to pick it up yourself. The company is already gaining in his team of specialists in loyalty programs and its advertising platform iAd she already has.

Apple Pay Promotion will not, of course, an easy walk in the park. A number of major reteylovyh networks, including such giants as Wal-mart, Kmart, 7-Eleven, and Best Buy, said they will block at accepting payments via Apple Pay. And they do it not just to Apple peak: the network together and create their own application called CurrentC, which is expected to launch next year. And retailers want to exclude from the chain more and payment systems to save on commissions: the money should be charged not with a credit card, and directly from the customer’s account. However, so far none of the banks is not connected to this system.

It is clear that the fight for the NFC-payments and transaction information of clients to be sharp. And the main competitor, Samsung, will not sit still and try to counterattack. Galaxy S5 smartphone already lets you log in to the PayPal payment system, fingerprint, and there are rumors that in the near future, the company will present and “smart” watches with similar payment functions.

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End of QE will result in policy for dollar

The end of QE will result in policy for the dollar?

As expected,
US central bank last week
He confirmed the end of their program
QE (QE). approached
by the end of the six-year method
infusion of money into the economy
through large-scale asset purchases.

While it is
It is still difficult to determine the effect of
Of QE, it looks like it worked,
as expected. "Easy Money"
spawned
more resilient
economic recovery
US and
employment is growing strongly.
Low US interest rates mean
that most
part of the extra money found
its way into other
assets –
such as
housing and stocks.

But as the lead
the dollar itself now?

While,
when the dollar
It fell sharply, the Federal Reserve
expanded system
aggressive QE
In 2009, a pair of sterling / dollar
trading at
the level of 1.50-1.65.
a weakening dollar
(Above $ 1.65) were
the beginning of 2011 and at the beginning of this year,
which coincided
to the time when recovery
economy loses momentum,
in spite of the huge sums of injections.
Other factors, too,
could influence the behavior of currencies.
The fall of the dollar at the end of
2013 took place against the backdrop of a partial
government detachment
After the congress, where
failed to agree a deal for
increasing public
expenses.

The Bank also
I did not conduct the program
QE England (in 2009 and then
Again in October 2011,
July 2012), that
It coincides with the fundamental period
the weakness of sterling. Lb
It fell below $ 1.50 after the general elections in
May
2010 where
to form a government.
And the pair fell back
in early 2013, when the UK
It lost its top AAA credit rating.
Nothing like this before
It happened
in the UK since 1970.

What we can
extract useful
from this? A strong economy and the end of QE –
positive
tendency to
dollar, but the litmus test will be
Information later –
whether the recovery will last
in the long term without extra
intervention? sustainable recovery
can reinforce expectations that interest
US interest rates will rise faster and
faster than previously thought, that
Again, potentially
involve all
more dollars back.

recovery
the dollar
6% against sterling from June
reflects some hope that it
happen, as well as the risk
weakening UK.
However, as in the UK,
none
confident that US interest rates
will grow in the near future – in
?? particular in connection with the global
changes. weak growth
in the euro area and emerging markets –
as the headwinds,
that interfere
American
export.
Mitigation of global demand and the recent
a sharp decline in oil prices could
prompt the Fed that it is necessary
postpone raising interest rates if the
they slow down inflation. Meanwhile,
the political situation can still
more
complicate any forecast.

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European banks are unhappy with Mario Draghi

European banks are unhappy with Mario Draghi

representatives of control
ECB Governing Council wish to speak against Mario
Draghi today. He said yesterday
Reuters.

The national central
banks operating in the euro zone plan
led the European challenge
Central Bank Mario Draghi this
Wednesday for his “secretive style” management,
urging him to act more
collectively. especially bankers
outraged that Draghi announced publicly
about the purpose of immediate increase in the balance
ECB, though the council was not going to do
any public statements.

"Mario became some
… more secretive and less collegial.
National leaders sometimes banks
feel in the dark", – he said,
a veteran of the ECB. Even members of the board
The ECB had not been informed in advance
on two key recent statements,
said two source.

Following the
stress tests of European banks, many
investors wary – they are afraid
repetition of 2010, when the Irish banks
We passed the stress tests shortly before
as the country’s financial system collapsed,
writes the FT.

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Moscow Hide and Seek US companies are breaking

Moscow Hide and Seek: US companies are breaking the law with her daughters sanction companies

The Wall Street Journal raises a very interesting topic in its pages. With Russian companies from "blacklist" American partners can not work. But in a company registered anywhere in Monaco, and under the control of foreign nationals, it is difficult to suspect the closest relative of concern "Kalashnikov". How to get out of such situations?

American
Company to ensure compliance
sanctions should first deal with the
the intricacies of Russian branches
firms. Western firms that are trying to
to avoid the consequences of sanctions against
Russia, are facing a fundamental
problem: they will have to start
to find out, whether owned by a cute
partner company of a larger company
from the sanctions list.

some
individuals and companies from the “black list”
We have extensive contacts with other firms
in different countries around the world. And so
this raises an ethical question: how
restrict business with Sanctions
list, but gracefully save
due to the “clean” firms? And where is the guarantee,
that the company with which you are working,
is no second cousin’s daughter “Rosneft”?

The scale of the tragedy

The United States contributed to the
sanctions lists 50 companies and 57
human. These units have a proportion of 107
ownership or full control
thousands of other companies worldwide
(Sometimes indirectly) according collected
Dow Jones Risk Compliance data.
Such native and “cousins” daughter can
It is found in more than 70 countries
the world (including, in fact, the United States).

The objectives of the recent
sanctions are different from other sanctions
modes that are normally focused
on order, more isolated from
global business community. Now all
harder, and US companies
search of partners should be as
attentive and well-sorted
tangle of branches of Russian companies,
to ensure compliance with the law.

American
entrepreneurs say: “Indeed
extremely difficult to comply with the anti-Russian
sanctions”. The main problem – to find out
exactly who owns what (taking into account,
that is information that has traditionally
not advertised).

Ignorance of the law does not relieve from responsibility

Among the companies,
having regard to Russia – for example,
manufacturer Arctic icebreakers,
Finnish company Arctech Helsinki
Shipyard Inc. It is 50% owned
Russia’s United Shipbuilding
Corporation, according to its own same
website and to Dow Agency
Jones. In July, all business have been banned
Due to the Russian shipbuilder
and given its share of the Finnish company,
Americans stop working yet
Finns.

representatives
Arctech to a request from the Wall
Street Journal on the subject do not
responded.

It’s just
one example. The situation for the US
Business is further complicated by the fact that
US authorities do not take
work on the preparation of “suspicious” list
subsidiaries, and companies in the search
Business partners must not only,
scrutinize sanctions
lists by themselves, so still and alone
conduct a study to identify
the rights of potential accessories
partner.

It means
additional investments in the development
security service, hiring professionals
appropriate level.

And what would happen if
someone inattentive Americans
the enemy will continue to support the firm
bypassing the sanctions? Everything is simple: in this case,
the company is facing straight
responsibility, because it violates
sanctions laws. Even if the company does not
He knows that actually works
for the benefit of Russia, it should still
fine.

"gray list"

There are so
called “gray list” – it
includes, for example, the Bank of Moscow and Rosneft.
It is less categorical, in relations
with companies belonging to it, is prohibited
Only certain types of operations –
e.g., crediting. This sectoral
sanctions list. These firms are imposed
less restrictive in partnership
American corporations, however,
experts say that here, too, is
“Blow on water”. “As soon as you learn
that the company is in the spectrum
the interests of the US government,
you should think twice before
start working with it. ”

important and
“Interest” company affiliation
to sanction the management or
“Parent company.” For example, “disgraced
the proportion of “50% – this is a strict ban on
any links. Such Russian companies
– “untouchables” for Western business
(Such, for example, all of our concerns
arms industry or the same
most shipbuilders). But “when dealing
now, Russian share of which –
only 33%, I would definitely sweating. And be found
a more suitable partner, “- say
experienced analysts and experts of the American
business.

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Results of press conference Sistema increased

The results of the press conference: Sistema increased by 100%, the dollar fell to 61 rubles

In
during his annual press conference
Vladimir Putin did not surprise anyone.

By
about the collapse of the ruble, it was stated that
The central bank and the government are doing everything
right (albeit a little late)
that has all the resources in Russia for
early exit from the crisis and that through
2 years we live very well.
Russia’s economy will grow in parallel
with the global economy, but it is undeniable
that we live in difficult times.

The president
covertly hinted to banks that
they were in no hurry to raise interest until
mortgage (but banks in an attempt to
survive anyway will do it).

Highly
Much has been said about the Russian business: according to
President, it will be provided
full support, ranging from
four-year tax holiday and
ending preferential lending.

Igor
Sechin was named an effective manager.
Putin said that Sechin will continue
work and achieve good results.

Main
President’s promise is that
everything is adequately and properly, and in
cooperation with new business partners
(Turkey and China, for example) Russia
achieve strengthen its position on the
all directions.

Ruble
during Putin’s first performances
a little weak, but then rose: Now
USDRUB is about
61 rubles.

AFC
System” has soared by 100%: Putin is not only
set free Evtushenkova, but still
and promised to invite him for the annual
meeting with representatives of business.

apparently,
to balance the situation today
He was arrested in absentia son Murtaza
Rakhimov, who led the “Bashneft”.
It is located in Austria, and the appearance of
in the zone of the Russian legislation
It will be taken into custody.

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