Dollar sharply lower on Wednesday

Dollar sharply lower on Wednesday,

By 17:00 Moscow time on Wednesday the USD index is at 96.50 points, decreasing by 0.5% largely due to events relating to the attack on Congressman Steve Skaliza in Virginia. The media of the latest posts, it became known that the shooter, wounding Congressman rifle, already arrested, and the congressman will have an operation on his hip.

Currency pair EUR / USD has strengthened by 0.5% to a value of 1.1272 points. May CPI Germany remained unchanged at 0.2% and April industrial production in the Euro zone rose by 0.3%.

In Japan, industrial production remained unchanged at 4% in April. USD / JPY has declined 0.7% to 109.30 points.

The average wage UK decreased from 2.3% to 2.1% with expectations of 2.4% in April. In May, the number of applications for the grant of unemployment was 7,3tys. with expectations of 20.3 thousand. GBP / USD pair is trading at 1.2728 points with an increase of 0.2%.

News background in Canada and Switzerland today unsaturated. Currency pair USD / CHF and USD / CAD decreased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

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Does it make sense to work on market in both

Does it make sense to work on the market in both directions?

trade strategy in the channel. Test torgovli.Matematicheski when averaged in a losing position and receive
fixed profit in the direction of market movement, it is possible.
In practice, this looks tak.http: //www.mql5.com/ru/signals/76179

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Most stocks are now threatened by rise of Fed

Most stocks are now threatened by the rise of Fed rates

Imagine this
picture: do you celebrate your birthday,
and all around non-stop talking about
your death. Such is the life of the bull
the stock market, which is officially “notes”
six years this week.

Instead of
focus on the 200% increase in the stock
market, where investors are more worried
about whether there is a likelihood that the stock
They will live and still see the seventh day
Birth “bull market”. The biggest
threat for him is just a rise in interest
rates from the Fed.

Remember how the action
fell on Friday – after a few days
after the Nasdaq broke through the level in
5000 points for the first time in 15 years. so investors
We were surprised by the strong February
employment report, and analysts
indicate a high probability of raising rates
The Fed in June. In other words, good
unexpectedly bad news
– for the market, at least.

«S P 500 awoke after
hangover from euphoria Nasdaq, then succumbed
casual “worker” (Refers to the reports on the labor market – ca. Perevi.). fright “, – writes
Sam Stoval in the report, chief investment
strategist S P Capital IQ.

So why is Wall Street
I lost sleep over some wretched
rate hike?

1. This is the end of light
money. To raise interest rates –
it’s like to push the punch bowl away
from the stock market. One of the locomotives
bull market since 2008 – it is a policy
Fed to keep rates close to zero.
These emergency actions pushed
investors into riskier assets,
making it less attractive alternative.
Remember that cash in the bank virtually
do not work, and bond yields
It was extremely low, which is why investors
rushed into action.

2. Historical “red
flags. ” If you look at history,
then the fears of investors about the
rate hikes have a certain
meaning. After the Second World War was
16 cycles, during which the Fed raised
interest rates. Risks are particularly acute
felt when the Fed raises rates
first. In the six months before or
after the first increase rate of 500 S P
experienced a decline in the amount of 5% – more than 13 times,
According Stovala. It means that
More than 80% of the time the stock market suffered
hit when the Fed raised rates.

Is the market chained
Fed “handcuffs”? some investors
already afraid of negative reaction in the
time – Dow Jones fell by 279
points on Friday in response to the news
that the unemployment rate fell
to seven-year low. And although the market
recovered slightly on Monday,
the ongoing turmoil in the stock
the market can actually become
Fed “handcuffs.”

"If this continues,
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),
It is not likely to move. Fed plays
in the stock market. Let us not
pretending that nothing is happening".
– says Michael Block, chief market
strategist Rhino Trading. he pointed
the fact that in October the stock
the market began "jump" after the statement of the head
St. Louis Fed James Bullard, who
He suggested the central bank to expand
its bond buying program.
Investors reaching for any comment,
Although the Fed is ultimately completed
quantitative easing program.
"Here’s how the Fed twisted these days"-
Block wrote.

Suppose that the Fed
It is actually ready to go ahead and
will raise rates in June or at the end of the year.
How the market will react?

History does not give
the ability to accurately predict how
It will be hard after the Fed raising rates.
In past times was different negative
the reaction in the stock market, including
three bear market, when stocks fell
at least 20%. Stock market
also survived two rollback (decrease
at least 5% but less than 10%) and two correction
10% or more.

Stoval believes not
will bear market,
especially because the US economy
It looks healthy, corporate earnings
continue to grow, and the shares still look
better than the alternative assets. But
one thing is clear that a correction is long overdue.
S P 500 did not suffer from decrease of 10%
or more over the last four years (from
October 2011). This usually happens
once a year and a half.

Correction may be
terrible for investors, but it may be
it is a healthy thing in the long
term. This will allow cash
sit on the sidelines, then to
you can use them for purchases at more attractive
prices and ease fears that stocks
It became too expensive. The average take for S P 500 just four months,
to get back to break-even after
correction, said Stoval. "although this
it may be appropriate – to prepare
to correction, but you need to immediately prepare
and to restore the – ultimately,
and we may be able to extend this year
on good colors and then we will celebrate
It has seven years of the bull market", – he said.

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Wall Street indexes rose

Wall Street indexes rose

America Stock
on Thursday showed an increase. DJIA
added 0,31%, S P 500 Index
to 0,45%, Nasdaq Composite firmed
0.48%.

Stock market
supported by the US statistics
Labor market: the average number of applications
for unemployment benefits over the past
month dropped to fifteen
minimum.

The largest growth
Energy was podyndeks S P
500, which by the close of trading
jumped by 1.5% as a result of rising prices
oil. Total increased 8 of 10 industry
S P 500 sectors, and that
offset disappointing
Reporting Alcoa, shares
which fell to 3.4%.

rose quotes
General Electric Co: shares rose
by 2.9%, as was information
the possible sale of the real estate portfolio
General Electric Investment
company Blackstone Group and Bank
Wells Fargo.

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MCAD

MCAD

MCAD – an abbreviation of MultiCurrency Accumulation /Distribution (multi-currency accumulation-distribution), which should not be confused with the well known MACD. MCAD calculates the relative strength of the accumulation-distribution of the volumes for individual currency Forex (i.e. their impact synthetic isolated from currency pairs), indexes, CFD and other groups of symbols. It uses a standard formula for the distribution, storage (Wikipedia article) and can be used as a tick volume and a pseudo-real volumes (volumes synthesized introduced specifically for Forex, where the real volume is not available).

MCAD CCFpExtra similar to, but whereas CCFpExtra shows the relative strength of price movements by themselves, MCAD further includes a calculation of the volume, which is considered an advantage. MCAD actually works as oscillator volumes and allows to make the analysis more sensitive and rapid.

Like other multi-cluster displays the author, this indicator has the following features:

  • supported tickers and arbitrary groups of currencies: Forex, CFD, futures, spot, indexes;
  • are aligned bars of different characters in time in view of possible omissions bars, including when trading symbols different schedules;
  • per can participate up to 30 tools (but only the first 8).

Options

  • Instruments – tool list, separated by commas;
    • Instruments should have a common currency;
    • Forex symbol is selected from either the base currency or quote currency is the only component that is present in all the characters; other tickers (not FX) when the auto-negotiation fails, the common currency is taken from the parameter DefaultBase (Here the word ‘base’ denotes a common basis between all tickers and not in the base currency Forex context);
    • The default tool list includes Forex major currencies EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD;
    • note that the NZDUSD is not available on some demo servers, so do not forget to edit the list accordingly;
  • DefaultBase – the common currency; It used only if the auto-detection does not work;
  • Fast – a period of rapid moving average by default 1;
  • Slow – period of slow moving average, default 7;
  • All_Bars – the number of bars for the calculation, 1000 The default of 0 means all the bars;
  • BarByBar – value false Scaling zero bar on each tick, true (Default) – the calculation is only at the beginning and at the end of the bar;
  • Surrogate – inclusion option (true) or disable (false) mode calculations using pseudo-real volumes; default – false, ie, use tick volume;
  • ShowLegend – enables / disables the output of the legend in the upper left corner sub window indicator;
  • SmoothingType – the choice of method of calculation of the moving average (by default, “simple average”).

screenshots

The screenshots 1-5 indicator is shown on the charts with different symbols, M15. Screenshots 6 and 7 allow to compare readings of the indicator when disconnected (6) and included (7) D1 surrogate volumes.

MCAD

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SSA Stochastic Limited Edition

SSA Stochastic Limited Edition

version “stochastic oscillator“Algorithms using singular spectrum analysis

SSA It is an effective treatment method nonstationary time series with unknown internal structure. It is used to determine the major components (trend, and seasonal fluctuations of the wave), a smoothing and noise suppression. The method allows us to find previously unknown frequency range and build a forecast on the basis of the detected periodic patterns.

Indicator signals are identical to the original display signals, but have the important advantage – do not have the time delay with respect to the price dynamics and more accurately and synchronously reflect variability behavior price series. This is achieved due to the fact that “SSA-% D” signal is realized not moving average, and low-pass filtering using SSA algorithm. Accordingly, this indicator is spared from this apparent lack, like the delay.

Custom filtering noise can significantly reduce the number of false signals, typical for the original indicator.

Built forecast for “SSA-% K” and “SSA-% D” take into account the totality of the detected different scale factors that determine the behavior of the price range and can be used to reduce the risks in the strategy.

The characteristic behavior of the indicator signals and interpretation correspond to the same stochastic properties.

For the convenience of the user given as the original “% K” and “% D”, and upgraded “SSA-% K” and “SSA-% D” evaluation.

Version of “Limited” has some restrictions in the settings, and LED control.

Options

  1. K period – observation period
  2. D period – smoothing period
  3. Slowing – the period of re-smoothing
  4. Algorithm – prediction method
  5. N: Data fragment – a fragment of a number of% K for analysis
  6. Time-dependent lag – window effect of history on the value at the point
  7. % K high-frequency limit – noise filtering option for the treatment of “% K”.
  8. % D frequency limit – parameter smoothing and filtering to construct “% D”.
  9. Forecast smoothing – Smoothing / regularization forecast
  10. Recalculate period – the period of updating the indicator values
  11. Predictable Points – the number of prediction pixels.
  12. BackwardShift – shift the fragment of history back. To set up the model and the forecast according to the known data.
  13. VISUAL OPTIONS – color graphics settings “SSA-% K” and “SSA-% D”.
  14. INTERFACE / Magic Number – an identifier for the application of the indicator included counsel

Explanation of the choice of parameters

High frequence limit defines the level of filtering and suppression “RF noise” in the data. Oscillations, whose contribution does not exceed this level will be filtered out.

BacwardShift for setting an indicator for a particular set of data. By specifying offset, you can compare the forecast with the known values ​​and more accurately select the setting display.

Forecast smoothing – it allows to smooth the results forecast by suppressing the “outliers”, or by “weighting factors”, given the significance of the previous results.

NOTE: If you choose “weight” option smoothing forecast in the first step of calculation of the indicator has four forecasted values ​​for initializing the smoothing stack.

Therefore, the first step requires more computing time. In the next steps that are required.

Magic Number. Connection advisor may result indicator when requesting 8 ( “% K” -Original), 9 ( “% D” -Original), 10 ( “SSA-% K”) and 11 ( “SSA-% D”) buffers.

SSA Stochastic Limited Edition

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US bank system on verge of new crisis

US bank system on the verge of a new crisis

Main
financial risk for the United States
It is now slightly different from the risk
which provoked the crisis in 2008
– the big banks have accumulated too much
debts at a very low level of own
capital.

according to
chief economist of the International
Monetary Fund, Simon Johnson,
which he expressed in his article
Project Syndicate, along with the risk
slowness becomes regulators
a serious threat to the entire
The US economy. Johnson says
the current situation in the US
economy resembles the events that
led to the financial crisis seven years
ago. "While all
financial crises begin in different ways,
each time repeats the same
Location: the big banks are in
trouble and on the brink of collapse".
– he says.

As an example,
the author says about one of
the largest US banks – Morgan
Stanley, the level of equity
is not more than 4% and, consequently,
the remaining 96% – it’s debts in one way or another
form. In 2008, the level of own
capital of the banking group Citigroup
It was 4.2%, and at the time of the crisis
the bank was in a very difficult position.

According to Johnson, the coefficients
capital adequacy, which
used by different regulators,
only contribute to the deterioration of the situation
cases, because misleading
inhabitants – used when calculating
items such as goodwill and deferred
tax assets. Johnson, however,
notes that the current situation
all in the banking sector is much better,
than before the crisis of 2008, even though
minor changes in the global
economy may nullify all
action to correct the situation,
because in the end the US banks, on average
It owns only 5% of the equity.

"We have already seen this film, and it is poorly
I ended. The next time you can see
even more eerie thriller"- warns
Johnson.

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America stock closed yesterday after announcement

America stock closed yesterday after the announcement of the fall of Janet Yellen

On Friday
after the statements of Fed Chairman Janet
Yellen on probable dates change
interest rates, US stock
indexes declined, as evidenced by
data exchanges. For example, the closure of the session
index Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% – up
mark 18232,02, Standard Poor’s 500 Index
decreased by 0.22% – to 2126.06 levels, the index
Nasdaq high-tech companies
Composite fell by 0.03% – to the level of 5089.36.

Yesterday Janet
Yellen, Federal Reserve
may raise key interest rates
closer to the end of the year. Regulator confident
that the country’s economic performance
will be better in the next few months, and then
Recent weak economic reports and
market problems seem simple
"statistical noise". Yellen
also said that the delay in strengthening
monetary policy can lead
to "overheating" economy.

"Statement that
increase will be gradual, it has already reduced
concerns that rates may rise
once sharply"- said a senior market
analyst Schaeffer`s Investment Research Dzho Bell.

Yesterday were in the US
published data from the Ministry of
Labor, which showed that in April,
annual inflation was -0.2% MoM
calculating – 0.1%. A month earlier, in the United States
Deflation of 0.1% in annual
terms and 0.2% – monthly. This time
figures were worse than expected,
because the experts are expected to remain
indicator of deflation in the annual
expression and inflation of 0.1% – monthly.

The most active growth
Friday received shares of Apple
– they rose by 0.88%, almost
reaching a historic high,
but we stopped at the level of $ 132.54.
“Apple” stocks grew when
Internet rumor about a new iPhone
6C – said the company allegedly accidentally
He posted his picture on a website,
but then removed. Microsoft Corporation
yesterday lost 1.10% – its
shares fell on the news that
the company was unable to agree with the
Salesforce for its purchase – side parted
in the price. Microsoft offered for the largest
manufacturer’s $ 55 billion cloud software,
and founder Marc Benioff
like $ 70 billion.

The leaders
growth – Goldman Sachs (+ 1,51%), American Express (+ 0,65%), Visa
(+ 0.52%). Small
the increase was awarded to General Electric –
its shares grew by 0.05%. Rest
the company is among the most active players
yesterday’s session, lost in the price of shares:
Intel (-0,3%), Cisco (-0,58%), Verizon (-0,57%), Coca-Cola (-0,27%),
JPMorgan (-0,25%).

The dollar index
yesterday rose markedly to the closing session
– it added 0.82%, reaching the mark of 96.26 on
background of a good growth of the dollar against the
the world’s major currencies.

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OPEC will do with Iranian oil

OPEC will do with the Iranian oil?

Just when it seemed that
OPEC’s winning the war with
US shale drillers,
has opened a dangerous new “front” – and,
within its own ranks. And it’s Iran. OPEC summit
which will be held on June 5 will determine
group power, but just three
Time becomes clear what the outcome
deal on Iran’s nuclear program.
The government in Tehran says
successful outcome could add to the market
almost 1 million barrels per day from Iran,
this rate the country could increase to
within six months after the removal of
sanctions.

This million barrels,
which OPEC was not worried before,
when it decided to maintain its
strategy (last November) –
leave each share of the market to
greater pressure on prices – now begins
scare the market. The cartel already pumps
record the amount of oil to
suppress other manufacturers, but
when Iran will return to the game, this will increase pressure on OPEC and increase competition
competition within the group.

"Many are now struggling
for its position in the OPEC", – says Ole
Hansen, head of strategy
Copenhagen Saxo Bank A / S. – "In Saudi
Arabia increasing production and there is no more
one in OPEC who could produce so much
same. If OPEC ready to cut production,
to make way for Iran, they
We must make to reduce power
producers outside the group".

OPEC is not expected
will change production quotas at 30 million
barrels, when countries will meet in
Vienna – thought so almost all analysts
and traders Bloomberg in May. Actually,
group power production increased in
During the year, showing its determination to
not to yield a single barrel of stake
market to compete with other
manufacturers.

Iran, once a second
largest producer in OPEC, and
Now – five, intends to fully
"regain lost share
oil market"- said Minister of Oil
Bijan Namdar Zanganeh May 6 in Tehran.
OPEC must take into account the increased production
their countries, he said in comments
Shana agency in April. Meanwhile,
OPEC’s strategy seems to be working:
the number of active US
oil rigs fell by
record 60% – up to 646. Extraction of slate
seams in the US fell in May for the first time
February 2011, as manufacturers reduced
billions of dollars of their costs.

As for Iran
negotiations – they, unlike the Greek,
are more or less rationally. Iran and
Six world powers, including the US, Russia
and China, seek to complete by June 30,
discuss the details of the nuclear agreement,
to rein in Iran’s nuclear program
in exchange for the easing of sanctions. discussions
resumed in Vienna this week, and
all the parties have stated that these negotiations
They have good prospects. increase
of production in Iran and its neighbors –
Iraq, OPEC will increase competition for the
oil sales in the fastest-growing
Asian markets and threatens to kill
A 40% rally in crude oil prices, which
raise prices to six-year low
in January. Brent crude,
benchmark for more than half of the world
manufacturers and buyers traded
today at 2.03% lower – at $ 64.15 per barrel
at 14:41 MSK.

Iraq too seriously
It plans to increase production volumes and
oil exports – in May, the country gradually
restored after decades
war and sanctions. Last month
recorded record 3.87 million barrels
a day, by Bloomberg data. Iran, on average
It produced 2.8 million barrels a day,
It used to be as much as 6 million (in
1970, for example). World powers reached
agreement with Iran in April. If
the final agreement will be made,
US and European sanctions,
are likely to be gradually reduced,
and it can mean an additional
the growth of exports from Iran, but it happens
and not just as analysts in
Societe Generale SA.

The best option for OPEC
in case of restoration of Iran’s production
– is to hold the prey and hope
that absorb additional supplies
demand growth, – said Mayk Vittner,
Research center head
the oil market in the Societe Generale in New York.
– "To prevent the OPEC strategy
tired manufacturers of inexpensive
raw material manufacturers to add permissions
high oil prices reduce the costs, drilling
and production".

By the way, “shot”
Iranian oil could hurt market
even before the country regained its
power. She has about 10 million barrels
deposited in court, said the deputy
Oil Minister Roknoddin Javadi recently
in Kuala Lumpur.

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EMA Separation Coefficient

EMA Separation Coefficient

EMA Separation Coefficient It reflects the distinction between short-term and long-term resistance trend exponential moving average, as well as the direction of the current movement. Pay attention to the potential points of intersection when approaching rate to zero. This may indicate impending breakdown or reversal. Wait for confirmation of the trend prior to the opening of the transaction, and the output when the coefficient constitutes a maximum (for a call) or a minimum (for a put).

It is a small tool to aid in the visualization of the difference between the average long and short periods. We hope you enjoy it.

EMA Separation Coefficient can also be combined with free indicator EMA Separation

Options

  • Short period (Default = 10): calculating the number of bars for a short period of EMA
  • Long period (Default = 50): calculating the number of bars for a long period of EMA

EMA Separation Coefficient

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