Regulators in doubt where to wait for crisis

Regulators in doubt: where to wait for a crisis?

The financial crisis seems to have become an expected part of the economic cycle, but they seldom repeat themselves. In 1980-ies. was a hotbed of Latin America, in the late 1990s. – Russia and South-East Asia in 2007-2008. – US banks and the real estate market.
Today, some fear that a new crisis will happen in the asset management sector.

sector companies control $ 87 trillion, of BlackRock investment fund in the world’s biggest manages assets of $ 4.4 trillion, which is higher than the balance of any bank giant.
After the recent financial crisis, regulators have tightened business rules for banks: now they must have more capital and sufficient liquidity to cope with short-term pressures. But it can be an act of “the last and decisive battle.”

Having a situation where banks have sharply reduced their lending, companies are increasingly turning to debt instruments (which are mostly owned by investment funds) for lending, writes the British magazine The Economist.
asset management companies have been the cause of the financial problems in the past.

The collapse in 1998, the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, which led by industry veterans, professors, and two Nobel Prize winners, has led to this shock on Wall Street and the urgent intervention of the Federal Reserve. Trying to save two hedge fund was one of the main reasons for the collapse of Bear Stearns in 2008
That same year, the money market funds managed by a group of Reserve, announced that the net value of its assets fell below $ 1 ( “break the buck”), with the result that the Fed once again had to intervene urgently.
All these events are quite concerned about the regulators.

In January, the international organization Financial Stability Board (Financial Stability Board) published a consultative paper, which offers qualified Asset management companies as “systemically important financial institutions” and their activities are strictly regulated.
The latest report of the Bank of England expressed concern about pension funds and insurance companies that are no longer performing the role of stabilization in the market and are increasingly using short-term market decline to make a profit by buying cheap assets.
In response, the asset management sector expressed their counterarguments. Firstly, funds act as stewards of capital clients, which is placed in separate accounts (with a third party, they act as gatekeepers). Banks such as Lehman Brothers, on the contrary, speculating customers money on their behalf.
Even if the asset management company will declare bankruptcy, its assets will be transferred to a competitor without losses to investors.

Hundreds of closed-end mutual funds every year, and their care has minimal impact on the market and does not require a rescue from the government.
Secondly, a comparison with incorrectly banks; except for hedge funds, asset management companies tend not to work with borrowed money. BlackRock balance of only $ 8.7 billion, while HSBC is almost $ 2.7 trillion, which is 300 times greater. Thus, the funds less vulnerable to an unexpected drop in prices for assets than banks that confirmed the crisis of 2008
Third, there is little evidence that the asset management company can become a cause of panic in the market. According to a nationwide non-profit organization The Investment Company Institute, the fall of 2008 or the stock market is at its lowest point in the mutual funds accounted for only 6% of all the shares of sales in New York.
All these arguments are quite convincing, and regulators do not hide that they are in a difficult situation, like between a rock and a hard place. Their goal is to anticipate future crises that may not be similar to the past. Following this logic, they are closely monitoring those sectors in which there was no crisis.

This alarm can be compared with the risk to the well-known game “Beat the mole” (Whack-a-mole), when the hammer has one seat and a toy mole jumps out from another location.
Some of the problems that worry regulators were partly their fault. For example, lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market is a result of the restrictions imposed after the crisis. If regulators this time decide to “put pressure” on the investment funds and asset management companies, they can get a situation similar to the game “Beat the mole.”

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Brent

Brent

So, my first post will be about oil. As you can see – this friend is hanging out in a big flag of many months. And approximately in the region of 1330- 1300, I plan to buy it, the order is worth a stop while in the 50 n, the expected growth of 500 and above, I would like to take 1,000 points if the nerves will stand, a hundred points will translate into b / y.

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What’s going on in currency market

What’s going on in the currency market

Today Euro
got a clear driver to increase – for
due to strong business performance
activity in France and Germany. But
the market is in no hurry to buy in large quantities
single currency: German figure was
still lower than last month. And
Eurozone business activity
becomes lower, indicating that
a slowdown of the European economy.
The result of all these events – EUR / USD
It is trading at around 1.3260. Support
– at the levels of 1.3220 and 1.3100. Resistance
– at 1.3330 and 1.3400.

Yen remains
under the iron heel of consolidating
dollar. In addition, the forecast GDP growth
Japan this past day has been lowered more
than doubled. This is further made
yen fall. Today, USD / JPY
It is trading at 103.70. Resistance
It remains at 104.10, support – in the area
102,00.

British pound
It shows a rather agonistic
behavior. On the one hand, retail
sales in the country have shown not the most
good statistics: they rose by only
0.1 m / m, although the predicted 0.4 m / m.
This triggered a wave of sales
“British.” However, growing the economy
rate of increase in the number of working
Places, household incomes are growing that
It allows us to hope for a quick
recovery of the British currency.
GBP / USD remains at
1.6580. Support – at 1.6560, resistance
– at 1.6740.

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Stock subsided America

Stock subsided America

Today
US stock futures show
very quiet dynamics before opening
markets, because investors are waiting
Janet Yellen speech. premarket
Futures on the Dow Jones and Nasdaq
slidand down to 0.01%, futures
on S P 500 “thin” in
0.04%.

planned
greater activity in the telecommunications
Sector: T-Mobile and Sprint
Corp start a price war between
themselves after their transaction
merger failed. premarket
declined stock prices Home
Depot (after the announcement about the change
manual). 0.74% shares gained Gap
after the earnings report that exceeded
analysts’ expectations.

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Opinion UBS on GBPUSD pair

Opinion UBS on GBP / USD pair

According to analytical forecasts UBS Swiss bank experts, the pair GBP / USD is under strong pressure in anticipation of an early referendum on Scottish independence. Analysts expect that in the context of the forthcoming meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy and the local oversold decline should slow down. "However, we recommend to sell on rise to $ 1.6515 / 25, with a stop above $ 1.6555 and $ 1.6405 purpose / 15" – noted strategists at UBS.

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Facts you should know about Scotland

Facts you should know about Scotland

On the eve of the planned referendum on Scottish independence increasingly appears in the media of news, forecasts, warnings. We all know that Scotland was part of the United Kingdom for more than three centuries, but it is quite different from other parts of the UK. We scored as many as 50 facts you need to know about Scotland.

1. Unicorn – an animal which is depicted on the emblem of Scotland.

2. The shortest regular flights in the world take place in Scotland. trip length is half a mile – from the city Westray to Papa Westray in the Orkney Islands. Travel lasts 1 minute 14 seconds.

3. Scotland takes about 790 islands, 130 of them are uninhabited.

4. Skara Brae – Neolithic village, located on the island of Brae, Orkney, is the oldest building in the UK which dates back to 3100 BC

5. In the Mausoleum of Hamilton in South Lanarkshire longest echo in the world – it lasts 15 seconds.

6. In Scotland, more than 600 square miles of freshwater lakes, including the most famous Loch Ness.

7. The capital of Scotland, Edinburgh is the second largest city after Glasgow.

8. Edinburgh was the first city in the world, in which there was its own fire brigade.

9. As with Rome, Edinburgh was built on seven hills. The city is the largest number of monuments than anywhere else in the world.

10. Prior to 1603 in Scotland had its monarch. After Elizabeth died I, Iakov VI Scots was also controlled as Scotland and England, as a result it has also become Jacob I England.

11. The City of St. Andrews is considered "the birthplace of golf". Here it is played back in the 15th century.

12. It is believed that Koroleva Viktoriya during her visit to the Scottish Highlands smoked a cigarette to ward off gnats.

13.Edinburg became home to Skye Terrier Greyfaersa Bobby, who captured the hearts of all who know his story.

After the owner’s death, Bobby every day for 14 years, came to the cafe, where used to be with the owner, received a muffin and returned to the master’s grave in the cemetery. There he met his death and was buried. In Edinburgh, there is a fountain with a sculpture of Skye Terrier. The monument was erected in 1872 after Bobby’s death, which has earned a reputation as the most faithful dog in the world.

14. In Scotland at the moment – the second largest country in the UK, after England.

15. The highest point of Scotland – Ben Nevis, 1343 meters.

16.Deviz Scotland – “Nemo me impune lacessit”, or: "Nobody will touch me with impunity". It is used by the Order of the Thistle, and in later versions of the Royal Coat of Arms.

17. Scotland – favorite country of the royal family who likes to relax in the castle of Balmoral on the banks of the River Dee.

18. In the north-east of the country girls called “quines”, and young men – “louns”.

19. The first recorded appearance of the Loch Ness Monster was in 565 AD, when the monster attacked one of the followers of St. Columba.

St. Columba – Irish holy monk, the preacher of Christianity in Scotland. St. Columba is one of the twelve apostles of Ireland. In the year 563 Saint Columba founded the first monastery in what is now Scotland and was rector there.

20. The Scottish city of Aberdeen is known as the oil capital of Europe, as well as the Granite City.

21. The deepest lake in Scotland, Loch Morar, reaches a depth of 328 meters, and is considered the seventh deepest lake in the world.

22. The smallest viskarnyu Scotland Edradur in Pitlochry, visit 000posetiteley 100 a year, but it produces only 90 000 liters of malt whiskey.

23. Scotland – birthplace of the oldest tree in Europe, fortingelskogo yew, whose age is about 3000 years old. According to local legend, Pontius Pilate was born in the shadow of the yew tree, and played there when I was little.

24. The raincoat was invented in 1824 in Scotland. It was invented Charlz Makintosh, a chemist from Glasgow. In the UK, the cloak is still called “Mac”.

25. The state religion of Scotland – Christianity.

26. Scotland gained independence in 1314, when Robert Bryus defeated the English army at the Battle of Bannockburn.

27. The Kingdom of Scotland was an independent until May 1, 1707, when the Act of Union Scotland joined England to form a single state – the United Kingdom of Great Britain.

28. July 1, 1999, for the first time since 1707, Scotland got its own parliament.

29. The territory of the country is 78,772 km ?.

30. The country’s population – about 5.2 million, is about 8.5% of the total UK population.

31. Population density – 65.9 people / km ?..

32. In North America, lived about the same as the Scots, as in most of Scotland, while, according to the US Census and Canada, about 5 million people claim that they have Scottish roots.

33. Scotland has its own judicial system, distinct from England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The jury could return a verdict of “guilty”, “not guilty” and “proven guilty.”

34. Bank of Scotland, founded in 1695, is the oldest existing banks in the UK. He was also the first bank in Europe, which began to produce their own banknotes.

35. Among the famous Scottish inventors – Logue John Baird who invented television in 1925, Aleksandr Grem Bell, who invented the telephone in 1876, and Alexander Fleming who invented Penicillin in 1928.

36. The first university clinic in America, Baltimore Infirmary, founded surgeon from Glasgow Granville Sharp Pattison in 1816.

37. In Scotland, the three official languages: English, Scottish and Gaelic, which is spoken by only 1% of the population.

38. In Scotland, 19 universities and colleges, including the University of St Andrews, where they met the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge – William and Kate.

39. The area of ​​Scotland, roughly equal to the area of ​​the Czech Republic, the United Arab Emirates, Panama, the State of Maine in the US or the Japanese island of Hokkaido.

40. Two of the first Prime Minister of Canada – Dzhon Makdonald (1815-1891) and Aleksandr Makkenzi (1822-1892) – were Scottish.

41. One of the most famous products produced in Scotland – whiskey – was invented in China. At first it was distilled monks in Ireland in the early 15th century, and only after 100 years of whiskey came to Scotland.

42. The most infamous Scottish dish – haggis. It is made from sheep’s offal – liver, heart and lungs boiled in mutton stomach. It is not known where it originated, but similar dish mentioned in Greece 2500 years ago.

43. Scotland – birthplace of many great thinkers, including Adam Smith, James Watt, David Hume and Dzhona Styuarta Mill.

44. Among the famous Scottish inventions – logarithms (1614), bitumen (1820) and the tire (1887).

45. Many known Scottish invention – kilts, tartan (checkered pattern) and pipes – not been invented in Scotland. Kilts originated in Ireland, plaid ornaments were discovered in central Europe, the Bronze Age, and the bagpipe came from central Asia.

46. ​​Known representatives of literature – Sir Walter Scott, Lord Byron and Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

47. Flag Scotland is a picture of Andrew’s cross.

48. Thistle is the symbol of Scotland.

49. In Scotland, home to most red-haired people in the world. About 13% of the population of Scotland – red, and 40% of the population are carriers of a recessive gene.

50. The first official international football match was played in 1872 in the West of Scotland between England and Scotland.

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Options

options

Hello!

to * Mo * start of sobstv.sisteme options test) at the end of month. Share results …

* If successful-start on a real MT4 with poss th copy for investors

** Here is what the system = on October 1. = 14%

Options

Revenue growth in Ste. At times, in comparison with August. –NO– was large drawdowns -ok.40%, therefore, optimizes the system further

* Here is what the system = 2 weeks + 2% =Options

should be optimized, with the subsidence – early on Real – / trace-e results of test at the end of September.

With you, Victor

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Its index of German economic sentiment rose sudd

Its index of German economic sentiment rose suddenly

Index
“The index of economic sentiment
Germany “unexpectedly significantly
above forecast. when we predict
value of 4.8 points, he was on the
level 6.9. This is good news – because
they mean that the business environment
“Locomotive” of the euro zone, even though
the difficult situation in the European
economy is still willing to work and
develop.

On
Against this background, one can expect temporary
strengthening of the euro and some growth check
European indices. However, all this
may be hampered by the fact that
investors await the Fed meeting and the information
on it.

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DAILY FORECAST FOR ACTUAL SETTINGS

DAILY FORECAST FOR ACTUAL SETTINGS

Today I want to talk about a couple of evrobritanets. judging by my traffic strategy will be strong (volatility).

Once again I look to my robot, which is written by the correlation group of currencies. Investors willing to consider. In the meantime, here’s my predictionDAILY FORECAST FOR ACTUAL SETTINGS

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Why do traders lose

Why do traders lose? (Continued)

A very interesting question, and let’s try to figure it out (continue the theme – https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/69 and https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/126) .

Let us consider a typical example, analyzing the schedule, e.g. GBPUSD H12:

Why do traders lose

On the chart the general trend is down, but as long as pullback – turn ind.4 and blue ind.3.

Our last action – profit for the fastest indicator (on the schedule – is turning blue ind.3).

Further analysis should show the future scenario of possible actions. This two options:

1. After the rollback downward trend will continue.

2. Rollback can develop into a general trend reversal.

The best option – to wait for a reversal trend upward as open a position in the continuation of the trend is very dangerous.

The second option – to wait for a reversal of all the one-way indicator. This is the correct version, but still dangerous enough, because of the possible situation with a sharp tug at the end of a trend and a very sharp reversal of the trend. There need a safety net in the intraday trend, for example 2:00 graph, for a very quick closing position to avoid a big disadvantage in the transaction – https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/707.

Conclusions: The main difficulties begin at the end of a trend, or at the transition when changing the direction of the trend. And here it is best to play it safe and not take any action on the opening of a new transaction, and wait for complete clarity in the analysis.

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