Oh, Avtralii !!!
The Australian dollar reached for the other currencies of the G10, to try to develop a correction against its US namesake after the publication of disappointing statistics on retail sales and producer prices against the backdrop of the collapse of the US stock indices, however, get involved in the growth of our own peril. Firm stance of the Reserve Bank, who believes the rate of national currency overvalued based on various fundamental valuation methods and confident that further devaluation will help to balance the economy of the Green Continent, as well as the introduction of import duties on coal is China, which threatens to further undermine the already shaky the position of Australian exporters do not allow the “bulls” on the AUD / USD breathe easy. We can not say that the “Aussie” no growth drivers. Until October 15, when during the American session, the individual FOREX currency pairs showed an increase of as much as 2 pieces per hour, volatility stabilized, which gradually returned to the market players on the difference. For them, the sovereign bonds of the Green continent still look tasty morsel, especially since the cost of funding in the United States, contrary to expectations, continues to decline. This leads to expansion of the yield differential of Australian and US bonds and contributes to capital inflows in the debt market south of the country. Reducing inflation in China to 1.6% g / g. in September, it gives hope for the expansion of the stimulus package by the People’s Bank and the unexpected increase in Chinese imports by 7% y / y. It indicates the probability of improving the state of Australia’s foreign trade. Alas, the hope for continued growth AUD / USD is still not worth it. The unemployment rate in the Green Continent jumped to a peak in the last 11 years, and in such circumstances, the Reserve Bank will prefer the preservation of loose monetary policy, especially since the peak of the oil market certainly will affect the inflation. Technically, the pair AUD / USD maintains the tendency towards consolidation in the range of 0,865-0,905.
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