The end of QE will result in policy for the dollar?
US central bank last week
He confirmed the end of their program
QE (QE). approached
by the end of the six-year method
infusion of money into the economy
through large-scale asset purchases.
While it is
It is still difficult to determine the effect of
Of QE, it looks like it worked,
as expected. "Easy Money"
employment is growing strongly.
Low US interest rates mean
part of the extra money found
its way into other
housing and stocks.
But as the lead
the dollar itself now?
when the dollar
It fell sharply, the Federal Reserve
In 2009, a pair of sterling / dollar
the level of 1.50-1.65.
a weakening dollar
(Above $ 1.65) were
the beginning of 2011 and at the beginning of this year,
to the time when recovery
economy loses momentum,
in spite of the huge sums of injections.
Other factors, too,
could influence the behavior of currencies.
The fall of the dollar at the end of
2013 took place against the backdrop of a partial
After the congress, where
failed to agree a deal for
The Bank also
I did not conduct the program
QE England (in 2009 and then
Again in October 2011,
July 2012), that
It coincides with the fundamental period
the weakness of sterling. Lb
It fell below $ 1.50 after the general elections in
to form a government.
And the pair fell back
in early 2013, when the UK
It lost its top AAA credit rating.
Nothing like this before
in the UK since 1970.
What we can
from this? A strong economy and the end of QE –
dollar, but the litmus test will be
Information later –
whether the recovery will last
in the long term without extra
intervention? sustainable recovery
can reinforce expectations that interest
US interest rates will rise faster and
faster than previously thought, that
more dollars back.
6% against sterling from June
reflects some hope that it
happen, as well as the risk
However, as in the UK,
confident that US interest rates
will grow in the near future – in
?? particular in connection with the global
changes. weak growth
in the euro area and emerging markets –
as the headwinds,
Mitigation of global demand and the recent
a sharp decline in oil prices could
prompt the Fed that it is necessary
postpone raising interest rates if the
they slow down inflation. Meanwhile,
the political situation can still
complicate any forecast.
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