EURUSD. Feast in Time of Plague?
We can not say that the statement of the Federal Committee got tough.
It was usual and did not contain, in fact, nothing new, compared to,
which it was already announced by its members earlier. However, contrary to the expectations of the majority
market participants, negative surprises from US
macroeconomic indicators of the last two months, exactly as pronounced
stimulating the mood of many central banks have not been able to provide its tone
mitigating the impact.
Brief statement contained the following important points:
– The economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, consumer
costs are rising, the housing market is improving;
– The rate of growth of new jobs decreased but remain high
level, exports are still weak;
– Inflation rates in the near future will hold below target values,
but in the medium term to return to him, as the negative impact
low oil prices and imported goods is temporary, and the high
the level of employment will spur the growth of incomes and prices;
– The discount rate is currently at an appropriate level, but
The Committee believes it is possible to increase it if the situation will demonstrate
further improvement, and to the next meeting will analyze a wide
spectrum of the incoming macro information;
reminiscent of the text of the recent performances of Mario Draghi, but with straight
opposite meaning. Instead of additional stimulus measures is expected
tightening of monetary policy. So, optimism among officials
The Federal Reserve is not diminished in contrast to their colleagues from other banks. Now
the beginning of the feast during the plague is already estimated at 47% in December to 34%
a few hours earlier, and March give all 70%. Some members of the Governing
Council did not share the confidence in the Draghi need additional incentives.
Perhaps the head of the ECB allowed himself a good half a bluff in order to reduce the euro,
Playing on the contrast Feda ready to raise rates. As stated in December
autopsy shows. But I think that if the already not cheap dollar will break level
1.05, the officials of the Committee will have to consider at least a change of rhetoric.
The technical picture and trading strategy.
R4 1.1350 daily high Oct. 23
R3 1.1280 day highs 6 and 7 October
R2 1.1210 daily high Oct. 1
R1 1.1095 daily high Oct. 28
Current price 1.0925
S1 1.0900 daily low October 28
S2 1.0880 daily low on August 4
S3 1.0850 daily low August 5
S4 1.0810 daily low July 20
was the mark of 1.1100 pair quickly washed away by a wave of optimism almost a full two
figures. The downward momentum again returned
Statement full force to break the psychological level of 1.1000. Now, before the summer
lows us takes only 1.0900 and 1.0850-60. However, the day and hour
indicators again fairly overheated, warning of a possible pause in
decrease. Interest rates remained at the same level on both sides of the Atlantic, but
market is filled with rumors and expectations that and move it pohlesche facts. AND
Now all expectations in one direction – extension percentage
differential. And if today the preliminary estimate of the US GDP will
satisfactory, buy the pair will not be fundamental reasons. With considering
extremality technical picture, it is desirable not to sell before failure
around 1.1000 and 1.1050.
Sell limit 1.0990, stop 1.1120,
EURUSD. Bets are made. R4 1.1620 daily high August 25 R3 1.1560 daily high August 26 R2 1.1465 Daily High May 15 R1 1.1430 daily high September 18…
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