The ruble is growing due to rising price of oil and demand for the cheapened risk
MOSCOW (Reuters) – The ruble increases in trading Monday due to demand for riskier assets, including commodities and EM currencies, and against the background of rising in price of oil on Friday, hoping for a capacity of OPEC and other producing countries to agree on production cuts.
On the side of the ruble begins today the tax period, and limiting the dynamics and activity holiday in the United States is a factor of market participants, Presidents’ Day, because of which also hold auctions in the pair dollar / ruble calculations "Today".
"Recovery of oil above $ 33 barrel of Brent will support the ruble in the beginning of the week. Today, States are not traded due to the holiday, so that the activity will be below average. Expectations of OPEC meeting, during which it is planned to discuss prospects of the commodity market, help market"- said Dmitry Savchenko bank Nordea.
K 13.51 MSK pair dollar / RUB exchange traded at near Moscow 77.40, 1.2 percent lower than the previous closing of the exchange.
Euro 13.51 to near the level of MSCs was 86.73 Ruble, 1.6 percent lower than the previous closing.
Brent barrel mark at this time was estimated at $ 33.57, 0.7 percent above the closing Friday, following which it rose nearly 11 percent, American variety WTI is estimated at $ 29.88, higher by 1.5 percent compared to the growth of a than 12 percent in the previous session.
Reuters analyst Wang Tao, starting from the technical analysis of the results suggested that Brent four weeks may be close to the mark of $ 42.11 per barrel.
According to him, this can happen if Brent held important resistance of $ 37.14, representing a 23.6 per cent of the traffic with a maximum of the last year at least $ 69.63 $ 27.10 last January, which, in turn, is located near the mark of $ 28 31, which is 86.4 percent of the oil from the minimum growth in December 1998 – $ 9.55 per barrel to a maximum of $ 147.50 in 2008, and serving a strong support.
Forex EUR / USD pair is now trading close to $ 1.12 and the dollar is going up half a percentage point, in turn, declining against the currencies of commodity and forex developing segments.
Raw materials, high-yielding currencies, stocks and the dollar recovered on Friday after last week’s losses, which took place the sale of risky assets amid concerns over global economic growth.
The peak of the Russian tax period falls on February 25, when completed, including, and the payment of the severance tax.
"In February, the volume of tax payments due to seasonality is at a minimum. We estimate a net outflow of ruble funds because of taxes from 15 to 29 February in the range of 200 billion rubles"- says Maria Pomelnikova from Raiffeisenbank.
On the side of the Russian currency in favor sparing schedule of repayments of external debt: February nominal amount of payments, together with interest – about $ 8.3 billion, according to statistics from the Bank of Russia. Market participants note in connection with this low level of currency purchases by corporations, which also added a drop of imports and low demand for foreign currency by the population.
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