Doha negotiations could not agree; price of oil

The Doha negotiations could not agree; the price of oil collapses

SNB intervened to weaken the franc (the author – Yenn Kvelenn, market analyst)

Swiss National Bank has no choice but to defend the franc from the still weakening single European currency. This week, the total volume of demand deposits increased by 2.8 billion. Francs to 486.4 billion., Which almost corresponds to the increase in the last week, when the rate rose sharply to 2.67 billion. Francs. We get more and more evidence that the SNB has to fight against excessive franc strengthen.

In fact, the downward pressure on the euro-franc pair will continue because of the conservation of the former ECB monetary policy, as well as concerns about the problems of a possible exit from ESS UK and Greece. Although Tomas Dzhordan last Saturday and said that the SNB still has enough room for the “war on markedly overvalued franc”, we believe that the SNB was trapped and that he is not a lot of tools for weakening the national currency. Negative interest rates can not be lowered down deep because this will mean a significant risk of banking panics, and rate peg, in our opinion, would be too expensive to provide, in view of the fact that the risk of collapse of the euro could lead to unlimited losses.

At the moment, the Swiss financial authorities take a wait and see attitude, gradually implementing the intervention. They hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. We maintain our forecast decline in the euro-franc.

The failure of the oil negotiations; Oil prices are falling (the author – Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy)

The Doha negotiations have not led to an agreement to freeze oil production levels, which led to crude oil prices down by more than 4%. Rigid energy prices correlated with quotations in stock markets indicate that today have strong impact on the US stock market (expect a large decline in the oil and gas sector). The summit in Qatar (involving both OPEC members and other countries) has not led to a final agreement, as Saudi Arabia has refused to reduce production without obtaining commitments from other major producers, including Iran. Iran announced that it will not send representatives to the meeting, which was held over the weekend, which significantly reduced expectations for an agreement last week. However, there are rumors that Russia, Qatar, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia approved the draft agreement. However, the report, and that was the last time Saudi Arabia has refused any commitment as Iran remained outside the agreement. The failure of the negotiations undoubtedly highlighted political differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have crossed economic considerations. OPEC talks were given an opportunity to restore his tattered reputation organization having an exceptional impact on oil prices. In the short term disappointment in OPEC (in favor of the oil bears) have a negative impact on investor sentiment for commodities. We believe that the commodity currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Norwegian krone, faced with falling demand. Among emerging market currencies, we will follow the ruble in anticipation of an active reaction bears. In addition, in view of the IMF’s data on the annual low of long positions in the US dollar, we do not exclude that the rally weakened the dollar will continue.

Bears not right oil

However, in the medium term, we maintain a bearish outlook at least in relation to the price of oil than most analysts. The prices depend on demand to the same extent as on the proposals and the latest economic data, especially from China, point to stabilization of demand. Global growth remains a concern, but the fear of deflation risk seems to have weakened. So, housing prices in China in March rose again, this time in 62 of 70 cities in the monthly basis. Finally, the theory that the offer of an oil producer can easily maneuver in one direction or another, it is incorrect (for example, in relation to production growth restriction). The collapse of the capital costs (including maintenance costs), and the tightening of credit conditions in the energy sector indicates a significant time lag between rising prices and reducing supply on the market.

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Fractal Divergence Channel

Fractal Divergence Channel

Channel fractal divergence based on fractal patterns divergence, presenting them in the form of channel, the limits of which vary in time of occurrence of the next pattern. The upper limit of the channel corresponds to the upper side of the last fractal pattern found bear divergence. The lower boundary of the channel – is the lower part of the last occurrence of bovine pattern (see screenshot 1.).

In relation to FractalDivergence_Patterns indicator, channel version has the same parameters, to which are added two more:

  • Alert on level breakdown? / Signal level of the breakdown? – Alert window appears at the time of the breakdown of the cost of the top or bottom of the channel. The following window will appear only in the breakdown of the opposite border.
  • Notification on level breakdown? / Notify breakdown? – Sending notification to a mobile device at the time of breakdown price top or bottom of the channel.

Fractal representation of divergence as a channel not only helps to visually mark the level of the last two patterns (bullish and bearish), but also to assess the current market trend:

  1. The market in flat. Channel normal mutual border location (resistance level above the support level) at which boundary successively approach one another (see. Screenshot 2).
  2. uptrend. Channel normal boundaries mutual arrangement in which they are successively increased (see. Screenshot 3).
  3. downtrend. Channel normal boundaries mutual arrangement in which they are successively lowered (see. Screenshot 4).
  4. market transition state. Channel mutual boundaries with abnormal location (below the support level of the resistance level). Adequate to say anything about the state of the market is impossible. Most often, such states are preceded by a change of the current trend, but because in these moments better to be out of the market (see. Screenshot 5).

Fractal Divergence Channel

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How long will fall and grow Australian dollar

How long will fall and grow the Australian dollar?

Tuesday
different from Monday, as the market is suddenly engulfed by a wave of fear
about global growth prospects. And all began with Asia and
all resulted in a sharp demand for the yen. USD / JPY in point concerns
1,5-annual minimum 109.94, but turned up after Bank
Japan came out the traditional verbal intervention. Japanese regulator suddenly
spoke about the possible extension of the stimulus program is already in
April. Also in the spotlight were a couple AUD / USD, sharp
sunk to a minimum 0.7509, rebounding from the 0.7631 high after
performances of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Main stocks passed into the red zone
the wave of fears over the outlook arising in the financial market
the world economy. He suffered more than others Nikkei (NKD), who for
day lost 8.33%. Meanwhile, Brent updated at least monthly
37.26, then. Gold against the background of what is happening cheered,
reaching the mark in 1230.
Continued on site GK FOREX CLUB

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Forecast for eurodollar as of today

The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today

Currency pair EUR / USD has dropped significantly in trading on Wednesday amid performances Janet Yellen and returned to the level of 1.1400.

The Fed chairman said the US economy is stable enough to withstand further rate increase and a reduction in the balance of the Federal Reserve. In this case, Yellen sees minimal risks to financial stability. In fact, Yellen said nothing new, and even can not say that her words were harsher and more optimistic than usual. Nevertheless, investors reacted to sell the pair euro / dollar, which led to more than 70 points to fall. Markets simply offset the unexpectedly strong growth of the pair on the eve of the background of the new development of a political scandal involving Donald Trump.

The European currency continues to be supported by positive economic publications. Yesterday, the Eurozone data released industrial output showed an increase of 1.3%, which is higher than the preliminary forecasts.

Our forecast for today assume the depreciation of the euro / dollar support levels 1.1420, 1.1400 and 1.1390.

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German Gref Bitcoin is fear of banking system

German Gref: Bitcoin is a fear of the banking system

The head of Sberbank German Gref, confident that the Bitcoin is the main fear of the banking system. This statement was made to journalists employed in the Thursday, July 13. According to Gref, “play” with Bitcoins is necessary for people who love gambling and casinos.

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Stochastic Oscillator Message

Stochastic Oscillator Message

Indicator Stochastic Oscillator Message (. See description, video), in contrast to the standard, it has a notification system about changes in the market, consisting of twenty-signals:

  1. and the intersection of the main signal lines in the extreme areas (less than 20%; 80%);
  2. and the intersection of the main signal lines in the corridor (from 20% to 80%);
  3. The main line of intersection levels extreme zones;
  4. The main line of intersection 50% level;
  5. divergence on the last bar.

Parameters extreme zones, mid-level and areas of divergence – customizable.

signals
displayed as a comment in the main chart window, the alert,
push-notifications to the mobile version of the terminal installed in the
mobile phone, or a message on the e-mail. The undoubted convenience
the adoption and tracking signals away from the PC to your mobile
device for controlling the opening and closing position (street,
store, car, garage, work, kitchen, en suite bathroom …).
Variant application indicator profitable, a multi trading strategy for all time slots which can be used also in a mobile terminal. 

Good luck trading!

Video

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RSetka

RSetka

Advisor is based on a grid strategy. EA trades on the flat and the channel. Dislikes strong recoilless movement, for their passage may require an impressive deposit. BUT, everything depends on your greed. Minimum starting lots and reasonable distance between orders allow the passage of the most powerful movements.

Endless recoilless movement does not happen, and, then, from any market situation may find profitnye output. The greater the risk, the greater the potential profit and, conversely, the smaller the risk will allow to save your deposit from the sink. Flexible configuration of the lot size, the distance, the averaging of the teykprofita allow you to customize the advisor specifically for your requirements.

Features and settings Description:

  • TextColor – the color of text to display the information.
  • Magic – Meydzhik number adviser warrants.
  • Slipp – Slippage.
  • Min.lot – Starting lot.
  • TakeProfit – Teykprofit in points.
  • Dist – The interval between orders in points.
  • Step – size change interval (Interval = Dist + Step * n, n – the number of orders of the same type).
  • BuyCurrency – currency pair to buy, if it is empty, it uses graphics currency (How to fill in “EURUSD” without the quotation marks).
  • SellCurrency – Currency pair for sale, if it is empty, it uses graphics currency (How to fill in “EURUSD” without the quotation marks).
  • Lot Mode – Selecting a mode of calculation of the lot:
    • Fibo – Fibonacci – elements of a numerical sequence, where each subsequent number is the sum of the two numbers.
    • Martin – Martingale betting system management. The next item is equal to twice the previous one.
    • Summ * K – The next item is the sum of all orders in direction multiplied by the factor K.
  • multiplier for Summ Lot mode – The multiplier to calculate the mode Summ * K Lot.
  • Trailing Step – Step treyling stop in points averaging level only mode, use stoploss.
  • TP Mode – Selecting the averaging calculation mode:
    • TP All – For all the orders of the same type is specified level bezubytka + teykprofit. At this level, it sets teykprofit for all orders.
    • TP Min + Max – for the minimum and maximum orders of the same type is predetermined level bezubytka + teykprofit. At this level, it sets teykprofit for these two orders.
    • SL + Tral All – For all the orders of the same type is specified level bezubytka + teykprofit. To achieve this level include treyling and at a predetermined pitch treylinga set stop loss for all orders.
    • SL + Tral Min + Max – for the minimum and maximum orders of the same type is predetermined level bezubytka + teykprofit. To achieve this level include treyling and at a predetermined pitch treylinga set stoploss of these two orders.
  • Close all orders and stop – minimum level available funds (deposit currency) in which the advisor close all orders and stop their operation. To continue advisor modify the settings or delete a global variable “Stop trading” (F3).

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Candlestick analysis simple to complex

Candlestick analysis – simple to the complex

Candlestick analysis – Just about the complex. Let’s investigate.

candlestick
analysis or
analysis candlestick came to the West about 20 years ago. Since then, he has become
one of the most important elements of technical analysis of financial markets. first
active disseminator analysis candlestick became Steve Nison. Sometime
More recently, he went to Japan and saw that the Japanese a little differently analyzed
markets. In the West, all the bars used, while in Japan – candles. Since then, Steve started
actively collect information on Japanese methods of market analysis and after a
He published a book called “candlestick analysis”, which quickly became
bestseller.

Japanese candle

A long time ago
Most traders use candlesticks as a graphic
indicator showing the dynamics of prices of issuers. There are several reasons: 1. Japanese
Candles are very popular. They are implemented in any trading platform. AT
interenete a myriad of information on the analysis of candlesticks. 2. Many
believe that the candlestick most convenient and perceived legro format
display of asset prices.

Japanese
candles, as well as bars, are based on the opening price, the maximum and minimum
price, the closing price for a fixed period of time. If the closing price is higher than the opening price –
a rising trend in the market, and the candle is colored in white. If the price
opening more than the closing price, the market trend downward and candle
painted in black. candle colors can be anything, it’s all
configured in the terminal for all tastes. candle size shows in
which band was the security price for the selected period. upper and
lower shadows indicate maximum and minimum prices for the period
respectively. candle body (white or black area) shows the change in prices
for the selected period.

So
It looks candlestick chart currency pair EUR / USD with a period of 1 hr. analyzing
such a schedule, traders pay attention to the size of the body of the candle, shadow size and
for different combinations of candlesticks. The price chart – is market psychology.
It is in the chart based on all the players emotions: fear, desire, greed. task
Trader is a candlestick chart analysis, found some formations, to assess
risks and potential, and on the basis of all this, to make a decision about entering into a transaction.

Continuation patterns

at
Candlestick analysis of the combinations do not look for the ideal formation, which will be
are presented below. In the market there is always noise and it is necessary to understand the meaning of
formation, rather than use it as an accurate pattern. The same can not be used
candle Foreman in complete isolation. It is necessary to take into account the current trend, support and resistance levels. Because the same formation in
different places may have the opposite meaning. Let us examine the main candle
figures continue the trend in the financial markets:

1. Method of three rising (falling).

The meaning of the model is that the trend begins to roll back, and if the price of the next candle
absorbs all the rollback and makes a new low or high, we believe that the trend
I have not yet come to an end. This candlestick pattern is similar to the graphical model
Technical Analysis “Flag”. Example candlestick formation on the issuer’s chart.

How can
notice, the formation is not entirely similar to the illustration above, but the meaning of the formation
saved.

2. Divide the candles.

Meaning
model is that after the candle trend correction, the next candle opens with
gap, closing the correctional candle, indicating a serious stir in
direction of the trend. An example of a pattern of “divide candles” on the Issuer’s chart:

3.
Confrontation.

The trend
great excitement towards trends, candle opens with a gap and
Attempts were made to roll back and close the gap, but the attempt fails and candle
It retains the trend. An example of formation “Opposition” on the Issuer’s chart:

Exist
some more figures continue the trend, but they repeat each other,
because increasing and decreasing the timeframe candles.

figures
trend reversal

Important
to understand that the figures turn can be used as a continuation pattern, by
applying them on pullbacks from the main trend. Reversal pattern will be
much better to work in integration with technical analysis, what we are now and
We shall see.

1.
Poglozhenie. Bullish engulfing, bearish engulfing.

Meaning
model that trend last candle is completely absorbed following
counter-trend candles that indicate a change in the local market sentiment.
Examples of the pattern “absorption” of the issuer charts:

On the image
bold color circled column classic setup, and the rest have the same meaning, but
made up of more of candles.

And this
Figure shows how pivots shapes can be used as a figure
continue. I started the trend, stopped, made a small retracement and Bear
the candle is completely consumed the entire pullback and the trend continued.

2.
Hammer or doji.

The essence of the model
is the same as in the past pattern, bears consume bulls and vice versa. This
the model is fairly common on graphics and good work out of
support and resistance levels. This formation is also called “Pin bar”. Example model “Hammer” on the Issuer’s chart:

3.
Breakdown.

The issuer
there is a trend going on with GEO thoron trend and the amplitude of the following
several spark is sharply reduced, and then there is a sharp breakdown range
these candles and closed the gap. This figure shows a local change
market balance. Example pattern “Break” on the Issuer’s chart:

formations
reversal of the trend is still very much, but they are as a result of such
the same as set forth above and shall bear the same meaning.

graphic
Reminder of the various formations (thanks to user Artur I):

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Vola Alarm

vola Alarm

Vola Alarm shows the current value of the price movement since the opening of the bar at a percentage of the average price movement. alert is triggered when exceeding a predetermined level.

For a trader it is always important to know there is a strong movement on a pair. The product can be used in a strategy to “Installation order in the opposite direction” or “Following_The_Object strong movement.” The indicator can be used on any timeframe.

The text in the graphic window shows the average maximum and minimum (Highs – Lows) in points for the last x bars.

Further, the indicator shows the value of Bid – Open of the current bar in points and percentage of the average of previous bars.

It also indicates the value spread in points.

Free version only works on EURUSD, with the default settings that are suitable for periods of M5 H1.

settings:

  • UpMax = 120: if the value of Bid – Open current bar exceeds 120% of the average value, is activated UpAlarm
  • DnMax = 120: if the value of Bid – Open current bar exceeds 120% of the average value, is activated DownAlarm
  • CalcBars = 24: Number of the last bars into account when calculating the mean value of maximum and minimum, maximum possible number – 30 bars. If the value is less than 6, the indicator takes into account the last 6 bars
  • CalcBars2Times = 6: number of bars accounted for the second time in the calculation of the average value, – this latter parameter value x bars doubled, increasing the importance of the last bars – can be set from 0 to 12 bars
  • TextPosition = 1: determining the position of the text on the chart on the following lines x – 0 to 9 lines
  • UpAlarm = True: notification inclusive; to disable, set to false
  • DnAlarm = True: notification inclusive; to disable, set to false
  • showComment = True: On the map the text in the chart window
  • showSpread = True: On the map of the current spread in the chart window 
  • SoundAlert = True: enable audible alarms
  • SendEmail = False: sending emails off. If you set the parameter to true, the title and the text of the sent email will coincide with the title and text of the pop-up notification

Vola Alarm

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Dollar stable against euro and rising against yen

Dollar stable against the euro and rising against the yen

On Friday, the dollar remained stable against the euro and rising against the yen as markets assess the comments European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, while sentiment on the Japanese currency remained fragile.

The EUR / USD was trading at 1.1294.

Euro played losses Thursday after a meeting on the results of the ECB Mario Draghi said the bank is ready to use “all available tools”, including further reduction in the interest rate, to return inflation to its target.

Draghi also noted that the risks to the economy of the eurozone “skewed to the deterioration of the situation” and warned of a possible deflation in the coming months. However, the head of the bank confirmed that the ECB remains confident that inflation will return back to the target level of just below 2%.

The comments came after the ECB kept interest rates at a record low 0.0%, in line with expectations.

USD / JPY pair rose by 0.77% to 110.31, the highest since April 6.

The yen remained under pressure amid speculation that the Bank of Japan may announce further measures to ease monetary policy at the meeting next week.

On Wednesday, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that he was ready loosen monetary policy to achieve the inflation target.

Meanwhile, investors remain focused on the oil market since Friday, oil prices held near five-month highs.

USD index, which indicates the ratio of the dollar to a basket of major currencies, was steady at 94.63.

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